Bitcoin extends its rise and appears positive on the surface, but several bearish signals suggest the current uptrend is not a confirmed reversal.

On March 19, blockchain outlet BeInCrypto said bitcoin broke above $74,000 this week, while realised profits by short-term holders jumped to $18.4 million per hour. This mirrors a pattern seen in February, when short-term holders sold consistently above $70,000, limiting gains. In an early recovery from a bear market, recent buyers tend to use price strength as an opportunity to sell rather than to break through resistance.

If the market absorbs this selling pressure and holds above $70,000 for the next few weeks, $78,000 and $82,000 could be the next targets. For that to happen, short-term selling would need to fall sharply from current levels.

The "supply profit status" indicator rose to about 60 percent, an early rebound level similar to past cycle bottoms. In past shifts from bear markets to bull markets, the indicator climbed from below minus 1 standard deviation to around 75 percent. The current 60 percent level does not confirm whether the rise will continue, but matches levels where past bear-market rebounds stalled.

A move above 75 percent would signal a shift to a bull market, but repeated rejection at 60 percent would reinforce a bear-market recovery pattern. Bitcoin is trading at $70,879 and remains below resistance at $72,294. It failed to break above $75,000 early this week, and selling pressure from short-term holders continues.

Bitcoin is moving within an ascending channel, and downward pressure could push it below $70,000 to $68,830. A break of the lower end of the channel is unlikely, but if it happens, the price could fall to $66,224. If it rebounds from support at $70,000, it may retest $75,000.