Bitcoin (BTC) has moved to the centre of a market debate amid sharply diverging forecasts. One side predicts it will break $500,000 within a few years, while the other warns it could plunge to $10,000.

According to blockchain outlet The Crypto Basic on Feb. 17, optimism is led by serial entrepreneur and bitcoin advocate Andrew Parrish (앤드류 패리쉬). He recently described the downturn as an "opportunity, not a risk" and viewed levels below $70,000 as a strategic entry point. Parrish argues bitcoin could top $500,000 within the next 3 years. That would be about a 634% gain from the current price and would require an annual return of about 95%.

His outlook is largely based on investor sentiment indicators. He highlighted that the Fear and Greed Index fell to 5 on Feb. 6, marking a record low. Bitcoin then slipped to around $60,000, showing the weakest performance in this correction. He sees the formation of extreme pessimism as likely to be the starting point for a medium- to long-term rebound. Bitcoin's roughly 30% fall over the past month, and the evaporation of about $2 trillion in market capitalisation across the overall crypto market, also underpin that contrarian logic.

Institutional fund flows are also a variable. About $678 million flowed out of spot bitcoin ETFs in February alone, with cumulative outflows since November last year tallied at about $6 billion. Parrish argues this selling pressure could be an accumulation opportunity for long-term investors. He noted that large asset managers such as BlackRock tend to buy when retail investor sentiment deteriorates sharply, and said such counter-cyclical buying could form the foundation of the next bull market.

In a similar vein, veteran investor Rick Edelman (릭 에델만) also floated the possibility of $500,000 on a somewhat longer timeline. He projected bitcoin could reach that level by 2030 through an expansion in global asset allocation. Edelman pointed out that many investors worldwide are still not sufficiently exposed to bitcoin, and saw gradual broader participation by institutions such as governments, pension funds, sovereign wealth funds, hedge funds and insurers as a key driver. Given global assets total about $750 trillion, he calculated that allocating just 1% of portfolios to bitcoin could generate potential demand of about $7.5 trillion.

Caution, however, is also strong. Bloomberg Intelligence macro strategist Mike McGlone (마이크 맥글론) warned that bitcoin could fall to $10,000, down a further 85%, as the market bubble deflates. He questioned whether the once-reliable "buy-the-dip" strategy still works in the current environment. Capital is leaving the crypto market due to strength in equities and easing volatility, and fading policy expectations and aggressive profit-taking in gold and silver are also putting downward pressure on risk assets overall, he said.

The market ultimately stands between two sharply divided outlooks. One side interprets today, when fear is at its peak, as a historic buying opportunity, while the other views it as a signal of accumulating structural risks. With volatility persisting, investors are watching closely which direction bitcoin takes next.