[Digital Today reporter Hyunwoo Chu] Bitcoin may break out of its current downtrend and reach $150,000 by the end of the year, a forecast said. Cointelegraph reported on Wednesday that several technical and market conditions must be met for Bitcoin to reach $150,000.

First, Bitcoin must stay above its 200-week simple moving average (SMA). Past cases show that even during the 2015 and 2018 bear markets, it rebounded from this level and shifted into a bull market. If the current move of holding the 200-week SMA as support continues, the likelihood of a new upcycle increases.

An inflow of new investors is also essential. Recent data show that selling pressure from short-term holders has increased, with about $2.7 billion in funds flowing out. That signals a lack of new capital inflows, a necessary condition for a shift to a bull market. But Bitcoin ETF net inflows have recently turned positive, suggesting returning new investors.

USDT's share within the market is also an important variable. A rise in USDT dominance means investors are avoiding risk, but if it falls, capital is more likely to flow back into Bitcoin and the crypto market. Past cases also showed that Bitcoin posted strong rebounds when USDT dominance failed to rise above 8 to 9 percent and declined.

Quantum-computing threats are also a factor to overcome. Some experts argue that quantum computers could threaten Bitcoin's cryptographic security, but Blockstream CEO Adam Back (애덤 백) stressed that there is enough time, saying, "It will take 20 to 40 years before it becomes a practical threat."

Interest rate policy is also an important variable. The U.S. Federal Reserve may cut rates at least twice in 2026, and the possibility has been raised that President Trump could press for additional rate cuts through the next Fed chair. Rate cuts can have a positive effect on risk assets and could support Bitcoin's rise.