[DigitalToday reporter Yoonseo Lee (이윤서)] As bitcoin shows weakness, investment bank Bernstein said the current correction is the "weakest bear market in history" and reaffirmed its $150,000 target for the end of 2026.

The Block Crypto, a blockchain media outlet, reported on Feb. 9 that Bernstein said the latest decline stems from a "crisis of confidence" rather than flaws in the system itself.

Bernstein explained that typical catalysts seen in past bear markets, such as major failures, leverage and systemic issues, have not been confirmed this time. It instead assessed that alignment with the mainstream differs from the previous cycle, citing a pro-bitcoin U.S. president, the spread of spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), broader corporate participation and involvement by large asset managers.

On bitcoin's recent underperformance versus gold, Bernstein said bitcoin still has a strong character as a liquidity-sensitive risk asset rather than a safe haven. In an environment of tight financial conditions and high interest rates, gains could concentrate in precious metals and artificial intelligence (AI)-related stocks, it said. If liquidity conditions ease, ETF infrastructure and corporate funding channels could support a bitcoin rebound, it added.

Bernstein also rejected claims that bitcoin's presence is weakening in the AI era. It said that in an "agentic" environment where autonomous agents increase along with the spread of OpenClaw, blockchain and programmable wallets can be used as payment and settlement infrastructure suited to digital environments. It argued that legacy financial systems face limits to scaling because of closed APIs and legacy integration issues, while blockchains can provide global, machine-readable financial rails.

On quantum computing threats, Bernstein said bitcoin is not uniquely vulnerable. It said all core digital systems face similar cryptographic transition challenges and will move together toward quantum-resistant standards. It added that an open-source code structure and broader participation by major stakeholders can speed up responses.

It also said concerns are excessive about leverage-based bitcoin accumulation by companies and miners' risk of "capitulation". Bernstein assessed that major corporate holders have designed debt structures to withstand a prolonged downturn. It said Strategy might need a financial restructuring only in an extreme scenario in which bitcoin crashes to $8,000 and stays there for 5 years. It also said miners are lowering cost burdens by diversifying revenue sources, including repositioning power assets to meet demand from AI data centers.

Based on these factors, Bernstein concluded that the risk of forced selling has fallen sharply and that the current correction does not undermine the case for bitcoin's long-term adoption and investment.