[DigitalToday reporter Jinju Hong] Bitcoin (BTC) has managed a short-term rebound, but some traders are warning the latest rise may not mark the end of the downtrend.

According to blockchain media outlet Cointelegraph on Feb. 8 (local time), bitcoin rose about 3 percent in a day to regain $71,000. That is about a 20 percent rebound from a 15-month low hit last week. But as the weekly close approaches, doubts remain among market participants about whether the rebound can last.

Some analysts say the current price action shows a pattern similar to the 2022 bear market and that further declines cannot be ruled out. Independent analyst Filbfilb (필브필브) said it is difficult to view bitcoin’s current move as a bullish signal, citing that it is staying below the 50-week exponential moving average (EMA) of $95,300. He said a new macro low could form if that area is not recovered.

Tony Severino (토니 세베리노) also mentioned the possibility of another low based on several technical indicators, and BitBull (비트불) said bitcoin’s final capitulation phase has not yet appeared, stressing similarities to the 2022 downturn.

U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are also being cited as a burden. According to on-chain data analytics firm Checkonchain, the average purchase price for spot bitcoin ETFs is about $82,000, putting them in a significant unrealised loss zone relative to the current price. The $58,000 to $68,000 range, where the 200-week simple moving average (SMA) and EMA are located, is being discussed in the market as a key medium- to long-term support level.

Caleb Franzen (케일럽 프란젠), founder of Cubic Analytics, expressed caution by citing a case from May 2022. He said that when bitcoin retested the 200-week moving average zone at the time, bulls expected a rebound, but further declines followed. He pointed to similarities with the current market. He added that the market does not move exactly the same as in the past and that volatility could increase.

Experts share the view that despite the short-term rebound, a cautious approach is needed until macro indicators, including whether moving averages are reclaimed and ETF supply and demand flows, are confirmed.