As bitcoin (BTC) recently fell below $73,000, Mike Novogratz (마이크 노보그라츠), chief executive of Galaxy Digital, publicly voiced bewilderment. In an interview with Bloomberg, he said, "There is no reason for bitcoin to move like this," adding, "Something is going wrong."
On Feb. 4 local time, blockchain outlet The Crypto Basic reported that Novogratz said bitcoin's current price action clearly diverges from the macroeconomic environment. Gold hit a record high, and U.S. stocks and the Nasdaq index continued to rise, while interest rates entered a declining phase. Despite conditions that are generally favorable for risk assets, bitcoin is instead showing weakness, he said. Even with the pro-cryptocurrency stance of the Donald Trump administration added to that, the market is not reflecting it at all. Novogratz analysed the disconnect as short-term market factors overwhelming favorable macro conditions.
He pointed to profit-taking that emerged after an unusually long rally as a backdrop to this decline. Bitcoin started at single-digit prices about 16 years ago and rose to the hundreds of thousands of dollars through multiple cycles. In October last year, it hit a record high of $126,080. As it moved past a psychological peak after that long rally, long-term holders began taking profits and selling pressure quickly grew, he said.
At the time of the interview, bitcoin was trading at about $76,467. Novogratz assessed that this level was close to a short-term low and said, "We are getting close to the bottom." He interpreted the unwinding of a significant portion of leverage and broadly pessimistic market sentiment as signals of a bottom. He said bitcoin is likely to move in a $70,000 to $100,000 range in the short term.
In addition to profit-taking, concerns about quantum computing were cited as another factor weighing on the market. Novogratz drew a line, saying quantum technology could be a potential threat but has not yet reached the stage of a realistic threat. He stressed that the bitcoin network can adapt sufficiently in line with technological advances.
Still, some parts of the market appear to be taking it seriously. Jefferies' global equity strategy head Christopher Wood reduced bitcoin's weighting in a model portfolio last month due to quantum risk, and Coinbase has also pointed to quantum computing as a long-term challenge for the cryptocurrency ecosystem. More recently, the Ethereum Foundation set up a dedicated team to strengthen quantum security as it began its response.
Novogratz, meanwhile, does not see this correction as a structural collapse of bitcoin. He instead said the key is a shift in investor sentiment. Even early holders who once stuck to holding indefinitely (HODL) are taking profits, changing the market's character, he said. He stressed that the decline is a test created not by changes in the macro environment but by a psychological pivot among long-term holders.