An analysis says bitcoin (BTC) is facing an identity crisis unrelated to fundamentals. It says the weak price is not due to the network or the macro environment, but because investors’ attention is shifting to other markets.

On Feb. 1 (local time), CoinDesk reported that NYDIG’s head of global research Greg Cipolaro (그렉 시폴라로) described the phenomenon in a recent report as “speculative cannibalization.” As markets offering short-term pleasure and instant rewards expand, speculative capital that had flowed into bitcoin is being spread out, it said.

Over the past 30 days, gold prices rose more than 12 percent and the S&P 500 index also strengthened. Bitcoin fell more than 10 percent even without any specific bad news. Cipolaro assessed this as “not that capital avoided risk, but that it moved to places offering faster feedback.”

Financial markets have changed rapidly over the past decade. High-frequency, high-volatility markets have grown fast, including sports betting apps, in-game gambling, ultra-high-leverage ETFs and stock options that expire within a day. These markets are drawing speculative capital because they allow bets on asymmetric returns without patience.

Within the crypto market, preference has also risen for high-risk products such as memecoin trading and leveraged perpetual swaps. Even so, the view is that they are losing out in competition with outside markets that deliver faster results. Cipolaro pointed out that this trend is weakening liquidity and price discovery across the crypto ecosystem.

Ironically, bitcoin’s long-term performance itself has not been damaged. Historically, investors who held bitcoin for at least 5 years have never taken a loss, and its appeal as a long-term investment asset remains valid.

The problem, however, is the changing character of the market. For investors accustomed to instant rewards and fast feedback, bitcoin is increasingly being seen as a “slow asset.” Cipolaro explained, “An asset that can be traded at high frequency but is essentially suited to long-term holding is disadvantaged in the current speculative environment.”

The launch of spot bitcoin ETFs was expected to revive retail investors’ interest. An analysis also says their impact could be limited in a market environment where competition for attention has intensified.

Cipolaro stressed, “Markets that offer sustained engagement and instant feedback encourage speculative participation even if expected returns are low,” adding, “As a result, marginal risk capital is being increasingly absorbed into faster, more reactive markets.”

In the end, the issue bitcoin is facing is not a breakdown of technology or fundamentals but competition for investors’ time and attention. Its long-term return structure remains intact, but in a market dominated by instant stimulation, bitcoin is entering a phase that requires a new way to persuade investors.