An analysis that Bitcoin would struggle to catch up with gold's market size even if it surged tenfold is again drawing attention. The calculation is a simple one based only on current prices and supply, but it has fueled differing interpretations of Bitcoin's long-term role.

On Jan. 29, blockchain outlet The Crypto Basic reported that a simplified comparison of the market-size gap between Bitcoin and gold, using only "current prices" and "fixed supply," found that Bitcoin would still struggle to reach the same level as gold even after a tenfold rise.

Assuming Bitcoin trades around $88,815, its market capitalisation based on a maximum supply of 21 million coins is estimated at about $1.85 trillion. Under the same conditions, assuming a tenfold price rise to $881,850, its market value would be about $18.5 trillion.

But the gap with gold remains large. Gold trades around $5,570 an ounce and is continuing a strong trend near its previous high of $5,602. At that price, the total value of physical gold in global circulation is estimated at about $38.8 trillion, leading to the conclusion that even a tenfold rise in Bitcoin would still fall short of half of gold's value.

The comparison is a calculation based on current data rather than a forecast or assumption, but it has reignited debate in the market over what role Bitcoin and gold play during periods of crisis. Economist Peter Schiff (피터 시프) argued that rising gold and silver prices reflect concerns about financial stability, and again stressed his view that it is difficult to read cryptocurrencies as a safe-haven signal.

Schiff in particular maintains that precious metals are the main beneficiaries when U.S. debt expands and the currency weakens. He has also compared the current situation to 2007, arguing that Bitcoin is unlikely to become a refuge in periods when signs of a financial crisis emerge as they did then.

Some in the industry, however, place more weight on changes in Bitcoin's market structure than on comparisons with gold. Binance co-founder Changpeng Zhao (창펑 자오), known as CZ, mentioned the possibility that Bitcoin could break away from its traditional four-year cycle and said a long-term expansion phase could begin from 2026. Nick Ruck (닉 럭) of LVRG Research also assessed that the influence of the halving-based cycle has weakened in 2025, linking it to a sustained increase in institutional investor participation.

Institutional forecasts also do not converge in one direction. Asset manager Grayscale said Bitcoin could set a record high in the first half of 2026, citing macro demand, worries about declining currency value and changes in the U.S. regulatory environment. Standard Chartered has also said the four-year cycle theory no longer explains the current market and has previously put Bitcoin at $150,000 by end-2026.

Ultimately, the numerical comparison is seen as a reference indicator showing Bitcoin's relative scale. Interpretations differ over Bitcoin's long-term role, but an assessment says it is clear that the gap with gold remains large when based on current prices and supply constraints.