As the U.S. federal government faces the risk of a partial shutdown, financial and cryptocurrency markets are also on edge. Unlike last year’s full shutdown that lasted 43 days, analysts say the impact of the current situation is likely to be limited.

As of Jan. 28 local time, 6 of 12 budget bills have been passed, blockchain media outlet BeInCrypto reported. Past cases show about 60 percent of shutdown threats were resolved through last-minute negotiations. Markets see the deadlock as likely to result in only limited disruption.

Prediction platform Polymarket put the probability of a shutdown on Jan. 31 at 75 percent, with related bets exceeding $13.3 million. The standoff was triggered after Democrats opposed the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) budget bill. Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer (척 슈머) said, "I will oppose any bill until U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) is controlled and reformed." If no deal is reached by midnight on Jan. 30, operations at some federal agencies are set to stop.

This shutdown threat differs from last October. At the time, all appropriations bills were blocked and a full shutdown occurred. This time, the Agriculture Department, the Department of Veterans Affairs, the Commerce Department and the Energy Department have already secured funding. DHS is also holding a budget of $178 billion under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, making it likely to keep operating.

Crypto analyst CryptoOracle, who predicted a sharp drop in bitcoin (BTC) just before last year’s shutdown, said at the time that if a shutdown occurred, liquidity would collapse first and then recover. The analyst predicted a rebound after a 30 to 40 percent correction. This time, analysts largely see the liquidity squeeze as limited because a partial shutdown is more likely.

Past cases show shutdown threats often ended in last-minute compromises. From 2013 to 2023, 3 of 5 shutdown threats were resolved through late-stage negotiations. This time, it is also being discussed that Republicans could split off the DHS budget bill and pass it under the 60-vote threshold. Some Democrats are also seen as potentially willing to compromise if hardline border provisions are removed. In general, a one-week shutdown is estimated to cause an economic loss of $4 billion to $6 billion, with markets falling by about 2 to 3 percent.

Spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded net outflows of $1.33 billion as of Jan. 23. Analysts say the move was driven more by the Federal Reserve’s rate decision and big tech earnings than by the shutdown issue. Bitcoin is trading at about $89,177, about 29 percent below the record high of $126,000 set in October last year.