[Digital Today AI Reporter] Bitcoin (BTC) is trying to break through the $90,000 resistance level, while the U.S. Federal Reserve's rate decision is becoming a key market variable, Cointelegraph reported on Tuesday.

With the chance of U.S. policy rates being held seen at 100 percent, some expect bitcoin could fall as low as $65,500 if it fails to hold the $80,000 to $84,000 support zone.

According to the market research firm Polymarket, the probability that the current rate will be maintained between 3.5 percent and 3.75 percent is close to 100 percent. In the futures market, the likelihood of a hold is provisionally put at 97.2 percent, while the chance of a 25 basis point cut is just 2.8 percent. As a result, the impact of a rate hold is seen as already priced in.

A weaker dollar, meanwhile, could work positively for bitcoin. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) hit 95.55, its lowest level since February 2022, and historically a falling DXY has created a favorable environment for risk assets such as bitcoin.

To avoid additional declines, bitcoin needs to hold the $80,000 to $84,000 support zone, and a break below it increases the likelihood of a fall to $58,000. On the upside, $90,000 to $94,000 is acting as near-term resistance, and a break above it could lift bitcoin to the psychological resistance level of $98,000.