Whale accumulation in the bitcoin market is interpreted as a long-term bullish signal, but short-term volatility could widen if selling by small investors continues. [Photo: Reve AI]

Bitcoin prices are fluctuating around the $80,000 level, while trading behaviour is clearly diverging between large and small investors. So-called whales holding 1,000 to 10,000 BTC keep buying even during a price correction, while smaller investors sell and appear to be leaving the market.

On-chain data from analytics platform Glassnode, cited by blockchain outlet Cryptopolitan on Dec. 29, show addresses holding 1,000 to 10,000 BTC have been buying aggressively in recent weeks and have emerged as the strongest buying force in the market. Their cumulative score is near 1, signalling strong buying, while investors holding less than 1,000 BTC are showing net selling.

The moves of ultra-large whales holding more than 10,000 BTC have differed somewhat. They bought aggressively through late November but have recently moderated the pace of purchases. No clear sell signal has appeared, in contrast to mid-year, when bitcoin traded above $100,000 and they sold in large size.

Buying by institutions and listed companies is also continuing. Strategy, the U.S. software company and the world’s largest corporate holder of bitcoin, bought an additional 1,229 BTC through a share issuance. The average purchase price was $88,568, taking its total bitcoin holdings to 672,497 BTC. That is worth about $58.91 billion. U.S.-listed Hyperscale Data is also known to have recently increased its bitcoin holdings.

Investor sentiment remains subdued. The crypto Fear and Greed Index compiled by Coinglass is currently 25, staying in the "fear" zone. Over the past month, the index has moved between "fear" and "extreme fear", and selling pressure from small investors is analysed as affecting the market.

Price action also remains unstable. Bitcoin is trading at about $87,738 and has stayed in a range of $85,000 to $95,000 since late November, according to CoinMarketCap. Bitcoin is down 0.5 percent over the past 24 hours and down 2.19 percent on the week. That is 30.53 percent below its record high of $126,198 set on Oct. 6.

The industry sees a chance of a short-term rebound, but says the overall market outlook remains uncertain. According to a Cryptopolitan report in late November, many analysts and traders are concerned that additional selling pressure could emerge if bitcoin falls below $80,000. SosoValue data show $275.88 million flowed out of U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds as of Dec. 26, marking six straight days of net outflows, and cumulative outflows surpassed $1 billion.

Views on the long-term outlook are also mixed. Some experts, including Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan and Galaxy’s research team, are positive on bitcoin’s medium- to long-term upside potential. Strategy Chairman Michael Saylor has also offered a strong forecast that bitcoin could reach $21 million within the next 21 years.

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