Asset manager VanEck has presented a long-term outlook that the price of bitcoin (BTC) could reach $3 million by 2050. It said the analysis assumes expanded structural adoption of bitcoin in the global financial system, rather than short-term market overheating.

On Jan. 22, blockchain media outlet The Crypto Basic reported that VanEck, in a recently released long-term outlook report, assumes bitcoin will gradually be incorporated into mainstream finance over the coming decades. The firm said the model is not hype-driven optimism but is designed on moderate assumptions of expanded institutional investment and wider institutional use.

VanEck's base case assumes bitcoin will post average annual growth of 15 percent over the next 25 years. Matthew Sigel (매튜 시겔), head of digital assets research at VanEck, said in a recent interview the outlook is derived on the premise that bitcoin becomes an internationally recognized reserve asset.

The reserve-asset scenario includes an expanded role for bitcoin in international trade settlement. VanEck assessed that by 2050 bitcoin could process 5 to 10 percent of global trade transactions, and that its share of global domestic transaction settlement could also reach about 5 percent. That is close to the current share of the British pound in international settlement, at about 7.4 percent.

VanEck's outlook also hinges on changes in central bank reserve strategies beyond trade. The report said central banks could, over the long term, allocate about 2.5 percent of their foreign exchange reserves to bitcoin, which it said could materialise in an environment of growing concerns over rising government debt and currency stability. VanEck assessed bitcoin as a long-term hedging tool against potential risks in the existing monetary system.

To reflect uncertainty, VanEck presented three adoption scenarios. In the bear case, it assumed 2 percent average annual growth and put bitcoin at about $130,000 in 2050. In the base case, it applied 15 percent annual growth and expected it to reach about $2.9 million. In the bull case, where bitcoin secures reserve-asset status comparable to gold, it projected the price could rise to as high as $53.4 million. Bitcoin is currently trading at around $90,000.

Based on the long-term outlook, VanEck recommended that investors allocate 1 to 3 percent of their overall portfolios to bitcoin. VanEck's past analysis showed that a traditional 60/40 portfolio recorded the highest risk-adjusted returns when it included a 3 percent allocation to bitcoin.

VanEck said the latest outlook is more conservative than before. In December 2024 it assumed bitcoin's long-term growth rate at 25 percent a year, but it lowered that to 15 percent this time for a more cautious approach. VanEck defined bitcoin as a strategic portfolio asset rather than a short-term speculative asset, and argued that excluding it entirely could pose a bigger long-term risk.