As tensions between the United States and Iran escalated and international oil prices surged, the bitcoin (BTC) market reacted immediately. Some analysis also points to past cases showing that a spike in oil does not necessarily lead to bitcoin weakness. The view is that a short-term shock is unavoidable, but it could be a bullish factor over the medium to long term.

TradingView data cited by blockchain outlet Cointelegraph showed international oil prices jumping to as high as $79.84 a barrel in early Asian trade after reports that an Iranian drone attacked Saudi Aramco's Ras Tanura refinery. It was the highest level in about 15 months. At the same time, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite fell by around 1 percent, showing selling pressure across risk assets.

On prediction market platform Polymarket, the probability that oil will top $90 a barrel in March is reflected at 56 percent, with the chance of breaking $100 at 44 percent.

Some market participants expect that if oil breaks above $100 a barrel it will start with a resurgence of inflation, followed by delayed Federal Reserve rate cuts and weakness in risk assets.

Crypto entrepreneur Anthony Pompliano (앤서니 폼플리아노) forecast that "crude oil and gold will rise, and bitcoin and cryptocurrencies will fall." He warned that if Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz, global commodity prices could surge and bitcoin could plunge in the short term.

Crypto analyst BBX also pointed out that "if oil rises above $100 to $108, it is not simply an energy issue but an inflation shock."

In contrast, the opposite scenario is also discussed over the long term. Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes (아서 헤이즈) argued that historically, U.S. involvement in the Middle East has ultimately led to rate cuts or an expansion of the money supply to finance war. He said an increase in liquidity is likely to be linked to a rise in bitcoin prices. In a recent essay, he analysed that "the more deeply the United States gets involved in a Middle East conflict, the greater the likelihood the Fed will move toward monetary easing."

Past patterns showed bitcoin weakened immediately after oil spikes but then repeatedly recovered. During the Ukraine war in 2022, oil jumped by about 50 percent and bitcoin fell 18 percent. Two weeks later, bitcoin rebounded about 40 percent, and similar moves appeared after the Hamas-Israel conflict in October 2023 and the Israel-Iran conflict in 2025. The current situation could also be an initial shock phase, according to the analysis.

Crypto analyst Max Crypto said oil is showing moves to break through a multiyear downward trend line, and that in past instances bitcoin rose 100 to 200 percent after such phases. The interpretation is that while a spike in oil is a burden on risk assets in the short term, it could be favourable for bitcoin in the long term by stoking expectations of policy shifts and expanded liquidity.