[Digital Today reporter Jinju Hong] Steven McClurg, chief executive of Canary Capital, forecast that XRP could be one of the few assets in the crypto market this year that may show a trend separated from bitcoin’s price cycle.

On Jan. 16, blockchain outlet The Crypto Basic reported that McClurg, appearing on a podcast with host Paul Barron, took a cautious stance on bitcoin and said blockchain networks linked to real-world use, such as the XRP Ledger (XRPL), could follow a different trajectory.

“Most cryptocurrencies still move with bitcoin, but not every asset needs to be tied to the same cycle,” he said. “Blockchains with real use cases can disconnect,” he added.

McClurg argued that bitcoin has already passed its peak in the current cycle. His analysis said bitcoin reached $126,200 on Oct. 6, 2025 and then fell about 36 percent, and could drop another 20 to 30 percent over the next 6 to 9 months.

He forecast bitcoin could trade in a $65,000 to $77,000 range by the end of the year and said it is unlikely to set a new all-time high in 2026. He said that means the market has entered a bearish phase of a down cycle.

McClurg stressed that key themes in the crypto market in 2026 will highlight real-world assets (RWA), stablecoin tokenisation and enterprise-focused blockchain use, rather than pure speculation. He said the XRP Ledger could move differently from bitcoin amid that trend.

“Protocols deeply involved in real asset tokenisation and enterprise adoption are more likely to decouple from bitcoin’s broad downtrend,” he said, citing the XRP Ledger and Hedera as representative examples.

McClurg cautioned against excessive expectations for XRP. He said that in 2026, XRP or similar assets are more likely to see low double-digit gains among a small number of cryptocurrencies that break away from bitcoin’s influence, rather than a sharp surge. “These assets can stay flat or rise slightly, but bitcoin could fall another about 30 percent in the same period,” he added.

Sceptical views of McClurg’s outlook also exist. Historically, altcoins often fall more sharply than bitcoin during market downturns.

In fact, while bitcoin fell about 36 percent from $126,000 to $80,000 between October and November 2025, XRP plunged more than 58 percent over the same period, from $3.66 to $1.52. That suggests XRP’s volatility could grow if bitcoin falls further.

At the same time, it is also cited that when bitcoin shows a stable trend, altcoins such as XRP have tended to post relatively larger gains.

Views across the industry remain divided. Standard Chartered forecast that in 2026 bitcoin could rise to $150,000, ethereum to $7,500 and XRP to $8. Bernstein and Citi are also maintaining optimistic forecasts for bitcoin and ethereum.

Ultimately, whether XRP can meaningfully break away from bitcoin’s cycle is expected to hinge on whether real asset tokenisation and enterprise adoption can translate into actual demand.