A bitcoin (BTC) bottom signal has reappeared after first showing in 2023, suggesting the possibility of a 130 percent rally.

Cointelegraph reported on Feb. 28 that bitcoin showed a strong upward trend after the signal at the time, but the macro environment in 2026 is different. Crypto data firm Swissblock said bitcoin has remained in an “extreme high-risk” zone for 25 straight days. That exceeds the 23-day streak in 2023 and has historically coincided with bottom signals.

Michaël van de Poppe (미카엘 반 데 포페), founder of MN Capital, analysed a BTC supply chart based on profit and loss and said the current price range is similar to past bottom formations. In 2023, a shift from high risk to low risk marked the start of a strong rise. But buying interest is not holding strongly, and market moves remain unstable.

Macro economy newsletter Econometrics said the latest downturn is unlikely to be resolved quickly. Excluding the 2020 COVID-19 rally, a fast rebound was difficult without strong monetary policy intervention. Exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows also support that view. Since August last year, inflows into gold ETFs have outpaced bitcoin ETFs, and bitcoin fund outflows posted a 90-day average of minus 2.06 billion dollars.

Inflation is also a variable. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose 2.9 percent and core services came in at 3.4 percent, leaving them far from the U.S. Federal Reserve's target. If expectations for easing fall, liquidity expansion is expected to be limited.

Willy Woo (윌리 우), managing partner at CMCC Crest, said both spot and futures liquidity are deteriorating, forming a broad bear market. He said a short-term rebound is expected to face strong selling pressure at $70,000 to $80,000. He added that $45,000 matches the level of the previous downturn and that $30,000 and $16,000 are likely to act as long-term support levels.