BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes said bitcoin's weak performance in 2025 was the result of tighter U.S. dollar liquidity, not a structural problem.

On Jan. 15, blockchain outlet Coinpost reported that Hayes analysed in a recent essay, "Frowny Cloud", that bitcoin, gold and the Nasdaq 100 index moved differently in 2025.

Hayes said gold rose because central banks bought in a price-insensitive way. He said the Nasdaq maintained gains even as U.S. dollar liquidity shrank due to the Trump administration's artificial intelligence industry policy. "In a structure where the U.S. government pushes capital in to win AI, technology stocks can rise independently even if dollar liquidity slows," he said.

Bitcoin, by contrast, fell as it was closely linked to a contraction in U.S. dollar liquidity. "Bitcoin moved as expected. The weakness in 2025 is not an inherent flaw but the effect of the liquidity environment," he said.

He said risk assets including bitcoin were likely to rebound if dollar liquidity expands again starting in 2026. He presented three factors supporting that view.

First, the Federal Reserve ended quantitative tightening in December last year and introduced a new "reserve management purchases" programme, which would expand the Fed's asset holdings by at least $40 billion a month.

Second, he cited major commercial banks such as JP Morgan setting a total loan limit of $1.5 trillion for strategic industries, increasing the supply of credit to government-backed companies.

Third, he said President Trump ordered government-backed agencies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to buy $200 billion of mortgage-backed securities, which could lower mortgage rates and improve private credit conditions.

Hayes said if these shifts materialise, they could create strong upward pressure across risk assets, including bitcoin.

He also disclosed his investment strategy. Hayes said he is increasing leveraged exposure to bitcoin through long positions in shares of Strategy and Metaplanet. He said the firms' BTC-to-share-price ratios have stayed low over the past 2 years, and he believes they could significantly outperform if bitcoin returns to $110,000.

He added that he is also continuing to buy privacy-focused cryptocurrency Zcash over the long term.