Web3-focused research firm Tiger Research said on Thursday it set a first-quarter 2026 bitcoin target of $185,500. The target is lower than its previous forecast, but it said the medium- to long-term bullish outlook remains valid as there is still about 100 percent upside from current levels.

According to Tiger Research, bitcoin has fallen 12 percent since October, when the previous report was published, and is trading around $96,000. Spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded their worst performance since launch, with $4.57 billion in outflows in November and December last year. Annual net inflows of $21.4 billion were down 39 percent from a year earlier.

Even so, Tiger Research assessed that the overall macroeconomic environment remains favorable for bitcoin. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates three times from September to December last year, bringing them to about 3.50 to 3.75 percent. Tiger Research said it expects the easing stance to continue, as the Trump administration is likely to appoint someone with a rate-cut-friendly inclination after Fed Chair Jerome Powell's term ends in May.

Improving regulation is also drawing attention as a new breakthrough. The CLARITY Act, passed by the U.S. House of Representatives, clarifies jurisdiction between the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and allows banks to offer digital-asset custody and staking services. A vote in the Senate Banking Committee is scheduled for Jan. 15, and passage is expected to lead to fuller participation by traditional financial institutions that had been watching from the sidelines.

It is also positive that M2 money supply in major countries continues to rise even after reaching a record high in the fourth quarter of 2024. Tiger Research said, "Bitcoin has a characteristic of responding preemptively to liquidity expansion," and added, "If expectations for major countries' stock markets become excessive, funds could be reallocated to bitcoin."

Tiger Research said, "We lowered the macro adjustment coefficient to +25 percent from +35 percent, reflecting a slowdown in institutional inflows and geopolitical uncertainty." It added, "Even so, structural factors such as rate cuts, liquidity expansion and regulatory improvements support medium- to long-term gains."