Bitcoin (BTC) slid to its lowest level since August. It fell to around $73,500 late on Sunday, breaking below $74,000 shortly before the weekly close. Cointelegraph reported on Nov. 9 local time that about $1.12 billion of leveraged positions were liquidated over 24 hours ahead of the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) release.

Technical indicators also weakened. BTC fell below its 50-week simple moving average (SMA) of $75,492 and neared its 21-week SMA of $73,078. CryptoQuant puts the average purchase price for short-term holders at $75,691. The $79,300 average entry price for coins bought one to three months ago could act as resistance.

Nvidia is one driver of market anxiety. The company’s board said on Nov. 8 it had launched an independent investigation after reports that CEO Jensen Huang was targeted by a foreign intelligence agency. It said it saw no grounds to believe national security or corporate secrets had been compromised. China’s foreign ministry denied the allegations. The KOSPI closed down 0.8 percent at 5,018.85 on the day.

The macro calendar is also a burden. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release October CPI on Nov. 10 and producer price index (PPI) data on Nov. 13. September CPI rose 3.7 percent from a year earlier. CME FedWatch is pricing in a 78.8 percent chance of a 25 basis point Federal Reserve rate increase in December. Economist Robin Brooks (로빈 브룩스) said oil dropping to $75 a barrel could be positive for bitcoin. WTI futures are trading around $90.

Galaxy Research described the latest drop as a “fakeout”. Alex Thorn (알렉스 쏜), head of research, said bitcoin closed below the 50-week line it had held for seven straight weeks. He said it reclaimed the 50-week line after a bottom in 2011 to 2012 and 2019 to 2020 before losing it again, but neither time did a bear market print a new low. Still, he said it was too early to be confident because the sample size is only two. The bullish scenario remains valid as long as bitcoin holds the June low of $59,517, with a condition that it must reclaim the 50-week line within a month.