An analysis said bitcoin's relative value against gold could be a key indicator for it to rise to $500,000 over the long term. It projected a long-term upward path could form as bitcoin moves toward a certain level of gold's market capitalisation.

Bitcoin Magazine reported on Oct. 5 that Matthew Segal (매슈 시걸), head of digital asset research at asset manager VanEck, presented "half of gold's market capitalisation" as a benchmark for valuing bitcoin over the long term. He described bitcoin's so-called "north star" as its relative value versus gold and explained that a path to $500,000 could take shape through competition with gold.

Segal's analysis focuses on the relationship bitcoin forms with gold rather than simply projecting that it will reach a particular price. It said investors should look beyond isolated bullish or bearish factors and examine market size relative to gold, bitcoin's role in portfolios, the dollar environment and macroeconomic trends together.

Segal in particular focused on the possibility that the value of bitcoin miners could be reassessed as the artificial intelligence (AI) industry grows. That is because AI data centres are expanding rapidly, intensifying competition to secure power.

He assessed that bitcoin miners that have secured power contracts hold scarce assets in the AI economy. He said the key is not mining equipment but the right to access power and long-term contracts. As power demand rises for expanding AI infrastructure, the value of previously secured power resources could also increase.

The outlook said miners' long-term leases and power contracts are also likely to affect corporate value. Segal viewed some miners' business structures as changing from the past as long-term contracts spanning 10 to 20 years and investment-grade counterparties increase.

It is an analysis that the correlation between miners' share prices and the bitcoin price could weaken compared with before. That is because not only revenue from bitcoin mining but also the power infrastructure itself, which can be used for AI data centres, could create separate value.

Segal said undervalued optionality that the market has not yet fully priced in could exist amid these changes. This was seen as keeping in mind the possibility of additional revaluation of corporate value if the power and infrastructure held by bitcoin miners are used in the future growth of the AI industry.

The macroeconomic environment was also cited as an important variable in the logic for bitcoin's long-term rise. Segal mentioned the possibility that bitcoin could function as a hedge against inflation and fiscal dominance, alongside conditions where selling pressure is exhausted and low-price buying flows in. He said the relationship between the dollar and bitcoin should also be viewed within the framework of relative value versus gold.

He took a relatively optimistic view of regulatory and technical risks. Segal assessed that additional regulation of bitcoin is not necessarily needed, and while acknowledging quantum computing as a real risk factor, he drew a line that it is not a reason to sell bitcoin immediately.

Ultimately, Segal's outlook does not explain bitcoin's future value by price alone. It said relative value versus gold, the dollar and the macroeconomic environment, and power demand from the AI industry together could reassess the value of bitcoin and miners.

As competition among AI data centres spreads into a scramble to secure power, whether the power contracts secured by bitcoin miners can be valued as a new asset beyond the cryptocurrency industry is emerging as a key point to watch.