Semiconductor exports continue to set record highs, but performance gaps are widening between high-value products and commodity products even within memory chips. Demand from artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure investment is concentrating on high-capacity server memory and enterprise SSDs. Prices and volumes for those products are rising together. Commodity DRAM exports are not declining, but export growth is lagging behind products that have also seen price increases.

September trade data compiled by the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy showed semiconductors led overall export growth. Semiconductor exports jumped 262.8 percent from a year earlier, while other items excluding semiconductors rose 23 percent. September exports and the trade surplus both posted the largest monthly figures on record, with semiconductors contributing heavily. Shinhan Investment Corp said semiconductors came close to half of total exports. Export value rose even though the Chuseok holiday shifted into September, reducing the number of working days. The ministry explained that rising memory demand boosted export volumes and kept fixed prices on an uptrend.

Memory demand is now coming from AI servers. Computer exports in September rose 435.3 percent from a year earlier. The ministry cited the spread of agentic AI and rising demand for AI infrastructure. By region, exports to the United States rose broadly in items such as petroleum products and general machinery, but semiconductors posted the largest increase. Semiconductors were also the biggest item in exports to China and ASEAN. Shinhan Investment Corp said rising memory prices and expanding server demand are supporting exports despite the burden of a stronger won.

Even within memory, results differ by product. Hanwha Investment & Securities said high-value, high-capacity memory saw both export unit prices and volumes improve in September from the previous month. Commodity DRAM saw volumes rise in the same month, while unit prices held at the previous month's level. Commodity DRAM exports are not declining, but the structure is such that export-value growth lags behind products with rising unit prices. In September overall exports, export unit prices rose 44.1 percent from a year earlier, outpacing export volume growth of 27.3 percent. Having products with rising prices effectively determined export performance.

Fixed prices for commodity products are now moving differently for DRAM and NAND flash. The ministry said the fixed price for DDR5 16Gb rose every month from May and reached $48 in September. NAND flash 128Gb rose in June and July, then its gains narrowed, leaving it up just $0.1 from the previous month in September. That contrasts with a surge in exports of enterprise SSDs that use NAND flash. It is interpreted as meaning that even within NAND flash, prices are diverging between products used in servers and those that are not.

Some also say the split strength in semiconductor exports could create an illusion in fourth-quarter economic indicators. In its fourth-quarter manufacturing business survey index (BSI) released on the 28th of last month, the Korea Chamber of Commerce and Industry reported semiconductors at 139, the highest since the index was compiled. A reading above the baseline means more companies view conditions more positively than in the previous quarter.

But the semiconductor BSI combines high-value memory and commodity memory into a single sector figure, so it does not show gaps between products. Hanwha Investment & Securities said that, considering base effects, it would be difficult for the semiconductor export growth rate to rise further. The overall manufacturing BSI is 86, below the baseline. That means even in a fourth quarter when semiconductors lift the index, most manufacturers are expecting a deterioration in conditions.

The illusion is more pronounced in sectors that buy and use memory. The electronics and telecommunications BSI fell from the previous quarter to 80. The chamber cited cost burdens from higher prices for materials and components such as memory, copper-clad laminate (CCL) and copper, as well as rising logistics costs. In the previous-quarter survey, electronics and telecommunications had the biggest increase on expectations of expanded AI infrastructure investment.

Rising memory prices show up as export revenue for semiconductors, but as costs for electronics and telecommunications. In the fourth-quarter survey, 6 out of 10 manufacturers said this year's operating profit would fall short of targets, and they cited rising production costs as the biggest difficulty. The record-high semiconductor exports and BSI reflect figures driven by high-value products for AI servers, while the fourth quarter for commodity memory and memory-using sectors is moving differently from those numbers. An industry official said, "It seems as if the entire Korean manufacturing sector is being seen as booming because of semiconductors," and added, "Legacy memory companies, parts makers and set manufacturers are all trapped in a high-cost, low-profit structure and are responding conservatively in the fourth quarter."