Bitcoin signalled a strengthening uptrend after forming a second golden cross around the $86,000 level and reinforcing its bullish trend.

On Oct. 5 (local time), blockchain media outlet Decrypt reported bitcoin traded around $86,100, but it has yet to clear the recent high of $87,354 that has blocked the latest rally.

The key point is that the medium-term trend, not just a short-term rebound, has revived. On the daily chart, a traditional golden cross formed in mid-September as the 50-day exponential moving average rose above the 200-day line. More recently, the 100-day exponential moving average also moved above the 200-day line. Because the 100-day crossover takes longer to form than the 50-day, it is interpreted as a signal that reflects price persistence rather than a short-term surge.

Bitcoin has held elevated levels for months after rebounding from below $60,000 on July. As a result, both short-term and medium-term averages have moved above the long-term average. But exponential moving averages are lagging indicators, so a golden cross tends to confirm an existing trend rather than foreshadow future gains.

The macro environment is also turning more favourable for risk assets. In September employment data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), nonfarm jobs rose by only 29,000, far below market expectations. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2 percent and annual wage growth slowed to 3.0 percent. July employment was revised from an increase to a decline, and August employment was also revised downward. These figures weigh on the economy, but they worked in favour of risk assets.

Rate expectations also shifted quickly. The Federal Reserve raised the benchmark rate by 0.25 percentage points to 3.75 percent to 4.00 percent as of Sept. 16, but the likelihood of an additional October hike fell sharply after the slowdown in employment was confirmed. The probability of a further hike priced in by the bond market dropped to 16 percent to 22 percent after the jobs report from about 64 percent beforehand. It was the opposite of last month, when bitcoin slid more than 2 percent to around $79,300 after a strong jobs report.

Exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows are also positive. Spot bitcoin ETFs posted daily net inflows of $189.84 million in the latest tally, and total net assets were estimated at $101.1 billion. Continued institutional inflows even as prices stay below resistance are read as a positive signal for supply and demand.

Technical indicators also pointed to levels just short of overheating. The relative strength index (RSI) was high at 64.7 but did not enter the overbought zone above 70, and the average directional index (ADX), which shows trend strength, stood at 43.4, placing it in a strong-trend zone.

In the short term, the key level in focus is $87,354. A break above that resistance could raise expectations for further gains, but failure to break through could extend a brief pause. On prediction market Myriad, the implied chances based on the October peak are 80 percent for reaching $87,500, 59 percent for $90,000, 25 percent for $95,000 and 12 percent for $100,000.

This week’s schedule is also a variable. The Federal Reserve will release minutes from its September meeting on Oct. 7, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics will announce the September consumer price index on Oct. 14. The next monetary policy meeting is scheduled for Oct. 27-28. These events are expected to act as variables, along with rate expectations, in determining whether bitcoin can break through resistance.