Bitcoin is again trying to break above its 2026 opening price of $87,570. Cointelegraph reported on Oct. 5 that bitcoin ended weekly trading at $86,532 on Bitstamp, its highest weekly close since late January, but it still failed to reclaim the year’s opening level.

Soon after the weekly close, it briefly rose to $87,000. The fourth attempt to break higher since Sept. 21 also failed to clear $87,570. In the short term, short positions were liquidated near $85,500, while thick buy and sell orders around the spot price limited volatility. Liquidity is concentrated at $83,700 and around the year’s opening level.

The market is looking at $82,500 and $86,700 as near-term pivots. Rekt Capital analyzed that bitcoin is trapped between key support at $82,500 and resistance at $86,700. If $82,500 breaks, it could again test the previous 2026 range between $60,000 and $80,000. If it decisively breaks above $86,700, it could open a higher price range with an upper end at $93,700, it said.

In U.S. markets this week, the bond market is drawing more attention than macroeconomic indicators. Last week, U.S. 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields rose to 5.34 percent and 5.69 percent, respectively, the highest levels since 2002. They dipped briefly after weak nonfarm payrolls data but recovered most of the drop, and the 10-year yield stood at 5.25 percent at the time of writing on Oct. 5.

The U.S. Federal Reserve will release minutes of its September Federal Open Market Committee meeting on Oct. 8. At that meeting, officials raised the policy rate by 0.25 percentage point. Expectations for further tightening have since wobbled sharply, and CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows the probability of an additional 0.25 percentage point hike at the October meeting fell to 18 percent from 70 percent a week earlier. The market still sees the odds of a December increase as higher.

October seasonality is also being cited as a variable. CryptoQuant contributor Andrew Camski noted that bitcoin’s first 3 days of October have historically been the weakest 3-day stretch within the month, but it showed a better flow in 2026. Bitcoin rose 1.4 percent in the first 3 days of October and is up 2.7 percent so far this month. CoinGlass data show bitcoin has averaged an 18.7 percent gain in October since 2013. Over the past 13 years, October ended lower only 3 times, and the biggest drop was minus 13 percent in 2014.