The U.S. Department of Energy's plan to supply up to 40 million barrels of crude from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve through swaps has prompted expectations that bitcoin could also feel indirect effects even before the oil reaches the market.

The Department of Energy on Sept. 29 issued a tender notice to swap up to 40 million barrels of crude from the reserve. The deadline for proposals is 11 a.m. CT on Oct. 6, with delivery of volumes that are successfully swapped scheduled for November and December. Foreign media including CryptoSlate reported there have been no volumes allocated through the notice so far.

The volume is included in an earlier U.S. plan to release a total of 172 million barrels. It does not mean an additional 172 million barrels will newly be supplied to the market. The 40 million barrels also represent the maximum volume offered for swaps in this round, not volumes already moving into the market.

Market attention is focused less on the timing of actual crude supply than on how the measure may change expectations for oil prices and inflation. If a signal of increased supply shifts oil price outlooks, the impact could flow through inflation expectations, Treasury yields and the U.S. Federal Reserve's rate path to risk assets such as bitcoin. Still, the figures disclosed so far provide no basis to conclude the reserve notice directly affected oil prices, interest rates or bitcoin prices.

The environment around inflation and interest rates had been in place even before the notice. The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis said in an August personal income and outlays report released on Sept. 30 that the personal consumption expenditures price index rose 3.4 percent from a year earlier. Core PCE inflation, excluding food and energy, was 3.0 percent.

Because the figure reflects August prices, it does not reflect the reserve tender notice announced on Sept. 29 or oil price moves at the end of September. Therefore, the August PCE figures cannot be interpreted as having been affected by the crude supply notice.

The Federal Reserve on Sept. 16 raised its benchmark target range by 0.25 percentage point to 3.75 to 4 percent. The Fed at the time assessed inflation as still high.

Supply conditions in the oil market are also a variable. The U.S. Energy Information Administration in its September outlook forecast Brent crude prices would average about $90 a barrel in the second half of 2026, citing falling global oil inventories and supply disruptions in the Middle East. Key inputs used for the outlook were finalised as of Sept. 3, so it did not reflect the reserve tender notice.

The bond market and bitcoin prices are also difficult to view as indicators proving a direct impact from the measure. On Sept. 29, the U.S. 2-year Treasury yield was 4.89 percent and the 10-year yield was 5.26 percent. On Sept. 30, bitcoin traded around $83,000. These figures are reference indicators showing market conditions at the time and do not mean price moves resulting from the reserve notice.

A key date the market will watch is the close of bids on Oct. 6. How much volume is actually allocated will determine the scale of crude that could be supplied to the market in November and December. Bitcoin may also be affected less by the supply announcement itself than by actual allocated volumes and subsequent changes in expectations for oil prices, inflation and interest rates.