Bitcoin rose 40 percent over the latest quarter, posting its strongest quarterly performance since the fourth quarter of 2024. That record quarterly gain is also adding weight to analysis that it has entered a bull market.

On Sept. 30, Bitcoin Magazine and other foreign media reported that the rally accelerated further after the U.S. Treasury announced it would expand bond buybacks. Bitcoin has climbed about 30 percent since Aug. 19, when the Treasury said it would more than double the size of government debt buybacks.

Bitcoin was recently around $83,698, with little change over 24 hours, but it was up 6 percent as of the 30th.

The backdrop to the gains includes the U.S. Treasury's efforts to stabilise Treasury yields. At the time, yields rose to unusually high levels not seen since the 2000s. If long-term Treasury yields fall, the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as bitcoin and gold declines, and risk appetite across broader markets may also strengthen.

Still, yields remained high even after the U.S. Treasury moved to stabilise the bond market. Even so, the bitcoin market did not swing sharply. As the dollar weakens and bitcoin extends gains, so-called "dilution-hedge trades" are again drawing attention.

A dilution-hedge trade refers to an investment flow in which funds move into certain assets to guard against a drop in currency value. That has also dovetailed with the United States' total debt exceeding $40 trillion for the first time in July, or about 5.43 quadrillion won.

Bitcoin has undergone a sharp correction, falling more than 50 percent since hitting a record high of $126,080 on Oct. 1 last year. Even so, some assessments say it has so far recorded the shallowest bear market in its history.

Technical indicators also flashed bullish signals. CryptoQuant said in a recent report that bitcoin returned to a bull market after rising back above its 365-day moving average. It presented that indicator as a decisive technical signal that has marked the start of past bitcoin bull markets.

Bitcoin continued its upward trend despite U.S. Federal Reserve rate hikes and legislative setbacks for the Clarity Act, a major U.S. congressional crypto bill.

As a result, the 40 percent gain over the latest quarter is drawing attention as a key gauge of whether bitcoin's move goes beyond a short-term rebound and signals a shift into a bull market.