A warning has emerged that bitcoin in the $60,000 range is unlikely to be the final bottom of this cycle. On Sept. 23, blockchain media outlet U.Today reported that Bloomberg Intelligence chief macro strategist Mike McGlone (마이크 맥글론) said the current stability is unlikely to harden into a true bottom.

McGlone said retail investors are accepting moves around $60,000 as the bottom of a prolonged bear market, but that could be a wrong call. He said bitcoin’s rebound to $86,200 may not be a trend reversal, and could be closer to a final warning before further declines.

He cited a lack of liquidity in the crypto market and an expansion of alternative investments as key grounds. He said competition around non-yielding assets has become excessively fierce as the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield tops 5 percent in the third quarter. With lower-risk U.S. Treasuries offering yields of 4.95 to 5.00 percent and the S&P 500 total return index also trying to set fresh record highs, he said there is little reason for institutional money to keep holding volatile bitcoin.

McGlone also cited the 2008 path of WTI crude oil as a comparison. He said bitcoin’s direction could be inferred from the route in which WTI fell after first closing a month-end above $100 a barrel in February 2008. He argued that bitcoin’s first break above $100,000 in January 2025 also became a trigger for high prices to curb demand.

He also mentioned that in the United States and Canada, structural change is under way that could lead to an oversupply of up to 9 million barrels a day by 2027. He said bitcoin could face pressure from a similar supply-demand rule even after first rising above $100,000 in January 2025, and raised the possibility of WTI returning to $40.

He pointed to a correction in the U.S. stock market as a key variable going forward. He said a typical precondition for deflation after inflation would be a situation in which U.S. stocks fall about 20 percent and then stay around that level for some time, and added that such a scene has not yet appeared.

Based on historic business cycles and his own calculations, McGlone pointed to $10,000 as a real bottom zone where major investors could meaningfully increase allocations. With U.S. Treasury yields still hovering around 5 percent, he said the September rebound may amount to only a temporary breather, and the $80,000 range could be a clearing zone before waiting for lower levels.