[DigitalToday reporter Jinju Hong (홍진주)] An analysis says bitcoin rose to $86,000, quickly digesting two negative factors: a U.S. interest rate increase and the failure of the Clarity bill.

On Sept. 23 (local time), blockchain outlet CoinPost reported that market maker Wintermute said in its weekly report that bitcoin and ether broke above the top of their previous trading ranges within hours. It also said about $250 million of short positions were liquidated before the U.S. stock market opened.

The key point is that negative factors were already reflected in prices. The U.S. Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate by 0.25 percentage point on Sept. 16 to 3.75 to 4.00 percent. That was the first rate hike since July 2023. Wintermute assessed the move as somewhat hawkish but the best outcome for growth assets. It said a more dovish hike, with the 10-year Treasury yield around 5 percent, could have cost the Fed the trust it regained over the summer.

The shock from the failure of a Senate vote on the Clarity bill was also short-lived. The Senate failed to reach the 60 votes needed in a cloture vote on Sept. 15, with 49 in favor and 50 against. Bitcoin briefly slipped below $76,000 at the time but rebounded within a day after the rate decision. Wintermute said the impact of the bill's failure was limited to about one trading day as the heads of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission signaled the next day they would overhaul crypto rules within their existing authority.

Fund flows were also cited as a driver of the rebound. U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs saw a total of $746 million leave over two days on Sept. 15 and 16, but inflows returned at $159.5 million on Sept. 17 and $433 million on Sept. 18. On a five-trading-day basis, net outflows were about $6 million. Wintermute said most of the outflows after the bill's failure were made up within 48 hours. It judged the recent rise cannot be explained solely by a short squeeze in the perpetual futures market. By contrast, spot ether ETFs posted net outflows for the week, and it said institutional demand remains focused on bitcoin.

Technically, bitcoin also cleared a key level. Last week, bitcoin moved between $75,000 and $81,000, and its weekly close through Sept. 20 was $81,159. That was the first time since early November 2025 that it regained its 50-week moving average. Wintermute said the 50-week line had consistently acted as overhead resistance in past bear markets, and that this recovery could be a signal confirming that the June low is holding.

Sentiment in derivatives markets has also shifted. In the bitcoin and ether options markets, buying has increased in low-delta call options and call spreads expiring at year-end. The market is continuing to debate whether bitcoin can again exceed an all-time high of $126,000 within the year. Wintermute called that "still premature" but interpreted the shift as a sign positioning is moving from defending a range to seeking upside returns.

There are also plenty of market variables this week. There are 10 scheduled remarks from Federal Reserve officials, and preliminary purchasing managers' index data are due on Sept. 23. Chinese President Xi Jinping is scheduled to visit the United States from Sept. 23 to 25, and quarterly options expiry is due on Sept. 25. Wintermute said the Federal Open Market Committee meeting, the biggest event, has passed for now, and the market may remain in a phase of absorbing profit-taking as it settles at new price levels.

The focus is also spreading to other assets. Wintermute said attention could shift from bitcoin to ether, ahead of a major upgrade called "Glamsterdam," as well as to Solana and Hyperliquid. It also described the market's elevated mood as "healthy."