Bitcoin’s MVRV momentum, an on-chain valuation indicator, has re-entered positive territory. The move is drawing growing attention as it resembles 2019 and 2023, when the indicator shifted into recovery after bearish phases.

Glassnode said the Bitcoin MVRV ratio has again moved above its 365-day moving average, blockchain media outlet Decrypt reported on Monday.

MVRV momentum indicates the direction of the MVRV ratio. Glassnode defines the MVRV momentum oscillator as the MVRV ratio divided by the 1-year moving average, minus 1. A move above the baseline means the ratio of bitcoin’s market value to realized value has started to exceed its annual trend again.

A key point in this signal is direction rather than the absolute level of MVRV. Recently, MVRV momentum rebounded from a low around 0.6 to recover to around 1.0, and began to break above the 365-day moving average.

Glassnode assessed the move as structurally similar to the transition phases seen in 2019 and 2023. In those periods, MVRV momentum stayed below the baseline for a long time, recovered to around 1.0, then crossed the baseline and turned positive.

In 2019, after the 2018 bear market, MVRV momentum stayed below 1.0 for a considerable time. It then entered a green zone as the indicator recovered the threshold. A similar pattern appeared in 2023 after the 2022 decline. MVRV, which had stayed below the annual average for an extended period, crossed the baseline again and then generally maintained a positive trend through an expansion phase into 2024.

The current trend is also structurally similar. During a weakening phase that ran from 2025 to 2026, MVRV momentum mostly stayed in negative territory below the annual trend. After forming a bottom and moving sideways, a recent signal has shown a shift back into positive territory.

Still, it is too early to interpret the signal as a sign of overheating in the bitcoin market or a sharp price surge. The current MVRV ratio is about 1.5 to 1.6, below the long-term average of 1.8. At major market peaks in the past, MVRV climbed to much higher levels. Near the 2017 peak, it rose above 4, and in 2021 it reached levels close to 4.

Glassnode also distinguished the move as a "momentum crossover" rather than an extreme valuation reading for MVRV. It explained that the similarity to past cases does not mean prices repeat the same path, but reflects a structural shift in which an indicator that had been compressed below the long-term average is moving again toward expansion.

The move back into positive territory for MVRV momentum can be seen as an early signal to check whether bitcoin is emerging from a prolonged phase of compressed valuations. Still, additional trend confirmation is needed, as it is difficult to make definitive conclusions about the direction of bitcoin’s price or the scale of any rise based on this indicator alone.