[DigitalToday reporter Jinju Hong (홍진주)] XRP rose intraday on the 21st from around $1.41 to $1.54, rebounding about 9 percent in a single day.

According to blockchain outlet U.Today on the 22nd (local time), XRP continued to climb and is now trading around $1.58. The market is watching whether the rebound leads to a full recovery or remains a short-term bounce.

The rebound coincided with renewed inflows into the broader crypto market. Based on Sosovalue data, U.S.-listed spot crypto ETFs recorded net inflows of more than $1.9 billion over 24 hours. Of that, bitcoin accounted for about $1.36 billion, with new funds also entering other digital assets.

XRP's short-term chart has also improved somewhat. The market is focused on XRP testing a downtrend line that has repeatedly capped rebounds since the August peak. Some momentum indicators have improved, but derivatives positions still lack clear direction. That suggests it is too early to say the broader market has uniformly tilted bullish even if buying interest has returned.

The 'Up-tober' narrative, which refers to expectations for October strength, is also resurfacing. Recent bitcoin weakness has weighed on altcoins overall, but traders are again looking at fourth-quarter and October seasonality. XRP's past moves have not always followed the same pattern as the wider crypto market. In an analysis of monthly returns, the October median was also tallied at about minus 1.79 percent. That is why some argue that 'Up-tober' is only a market narrative and is hard to view as a reliable outlook.

That makes it difficult to draw firm conclusions about XRP's direction next month based on seasonality alone. The market is instead paying closer attention to whether the recent rebound holds and whether XRP actually breaks through resistance that has blocked prior upswings. The view is that XRP must extend its recovery and clear key resistance to treat this rebound as a more meaningful technical shift.

The regulatory environment also remains a variable. The U.S. Senate failed to advance the Clarity bill in a procedural vote on the 16th. The bill is legislation related to the structure of the U.S. crypto market and has been cited as one of the short-term catalysts. The bill has not been completely scrapped, but legislative momentum has weakened for now.

In this situation, XRP has secured some supportive factors, including improved spot-market trading, recovering technical momentum and October expectations. By contrast, derivatives-market data are mixed, and sensitivity to bitcoin prices remains high. That means XRP's recovery can continue to be swayed by external variables.

Weekly moves are also drawing attention. After ending a box range that lasted about 5 weeks, XRP rose about 5.5 percent over a week, touched $1.57 intraday and then retreated to the $1.51 to $1.54 range. A key reference line in the market is presented around $1.50.

Technical analyst Peter Brandt (피터 브랜트) presented $5.40 as XRP's upside scenario on a longer time frame. Citing long-term chart structure, he saw room for about a further 260 percent rise from around the $1.50 level. His analysis focuses on a multi-year convergence formed by a falling resistance line extending from the 2018 peak and a rising support line that began near the 2020 low.

Long-term charts, however, still show a burden. XRP previously broke an upper boundary in a major rally and rose above $3, but after a long correction it is now trading far below that peak. On Brandt's chart, XRP is positioned around $1.49 and is moving sideways below an 18-month moving average near $1.88.

In the end, two benchmarks coexist for XRP. The recent rebound to $1.54 to $1.57 signals that buying has returned after September declines. But on the long-term chart, it remains below a key moving average. The market is therefore watching into early next quarter whether XRP can defend the $1.50 area and clear nearby resistance or slide back into its previous box range.