An analysis said bitcoin’s monthly returns can be heavily swayed by a small number of strong up days.

On Aug. 22, blockchain outlet DeCrypt reported that bitcoin commentator Quinten Francois (퀸틴 프랑수아) released a chart comparing bitcoin’s monthly return with the return excluding the four trading days with the biggest gains. He pointed out that a strategy aimed at precisely timing bitcoin buy and sell points could be risky.

The chart showed bitcoin rose 24.9 percent in August 2026, but the return was just 0.5 percent when the four biggest up days were excluded. In November 2024, bitcoin rose 37.1 percent, but the gain fell to 4 percent on the same basis.

The gap was larger in past bull markets. In March 2023, bitcoin rose 23.2 percent, but it turned into an 8.3 percent drop excluding the four best days. In February 2021, it shifted from a 36.8 percent rise to -5.2 percent, and in April 2020 it moved from a 34.5 percent rise to -1.9 percent. In May 2019, it fell from a 62.5 percent rise to 2.6 percent, and in December 2017 it dropped from a 39.3 percent rise to -22.6 percent.

The cases show that a sizable share of bitcoin’s monthly gains may be concentrated in a small number of strong trading days rather than occurring evenly. Francois explained that investors who are not in the market could see overall returns materially affected if they miss such surge periods.

Counterarguments were also raised over the method. An X user said it fails to show overall returns because it excludes only bitcoin’s best up days and does not consider the worst down days. The user argued that removing only extreme values on the upside could distort how bitcoin returns are viewed.

The issue is the analysis approach. The chart shows what would happen if an investor missed bitcoin’s four biggest up days, but it does not reflect outcomes if the investor also avoided the worst down days. Francois said the point is not a complete investment simulation but that a significant portion of bitcoin’s gains can occur in just a few days.

The view aligns with the investment adage that time in the market matters more than market timing. Investors seeking to avoid declines must judge not only when to sell but also when to buy back. Missing periods of sharp rebounds can reduce returns.

Bank of Singapore said in an analysis published in February 2025 that long-term returns can fall sharply simply by missing some of the market’s strongest up periods. It stressed that short-term market moves are difficult to predict accurately.

Bitcoin’s recent price action has also renewed interest in the debate. Bitcoin rose to $87,300 on Aug. 22, its highest since January. At the time, it was trading around $85,500, up 4.4 percent over 24 hours and 11 percent over the past week.

Cumulative losses since the start of the year narrowed to about 2.3 percent, but it was about 23 percent lower on a 1-year basis. Compared with its recent low, it rose about 51 percent in roughly 2 months.

The case shows that assessing bitcoin’s monthly returns may require looking not only at the simple monthly change but also at when gains were concentrated. At the same time, because the approach excludes only the best up days, caution is needed in judging overall investment performance based solely on those figures.