Bitcoin closed above its 365-day moving average and broke a long-term trend line for the first time since March 2023. It also moved above a long-term trend line that has captured the start of major bull markets since 2019, prompting analysis that a long-term bullish signal has emerged in the bitcoin market.

On Sept. 22 (local time), blockchain media outlet U.Today reported that bitcoin recently climbed to as high as $85,897, absorbing large-scale sell orders that had weighed on the market since mid-August. In the process, it also broke above the $85,000 level seen as psychological resistance.

According to analytics platforms such as Glassnode and CryptoQuant, moving above $85,000 is interpreted as a signal that the market has entered a confirmed uptrend. In particular, the on-chain market value to realized value (MVRV) ratio rose above its long-term average, indicating entry into a zone of sustained upward momentum.

Glassnode said a similar pattern appeared in the early stages of the macro cycles in 2019 and 2023. At the time, the bitcoin network moved out of a prolonged capital accumulation phase and entered a new upcycle.

MVRV is an indicator that compares bitcoin's market value with the realized value of investors' holdings. A rise in the indicator into positive territory means the average unrealized profitability of network participants is improving.

Selling pressure also appears to have weakened compared with before. With fewer sellers seeking to offload bitcoin at discounted prices, the SOPR indicator shows profit-taking supply is being immediately absorbed by strong spot demand.

Investors holding large amounts of capital have also begun moving in the same direction as exchange participants for the first time in the past 3 years. This has raised analysis that the downtrend seen over recent months has been technically broken.

Still, some say it is too early to be optimistic about the market based on bullish signals alone. CryptoQuant researchers said the bitcoin market in autumn 2026 is likely to be more influenced than past cycles by inflows into U.S. spot ETFs and monetary policy decisions by the U.S. Federal Reserve.

In the near term, the key is whether the $85,000 level is solidified as support. If that price level becomes support, the next major resistance zone is expected to be between $88,000 and $90,000.

According to past models by analytics platforms, breaking through that zone could open the possibility of bitcoin challenging a new all-time high. But that analysis is based on past models and does not guarantee the actual price path.