[Digital Today reporter Yoonseo Lee (이윤서)] Bitcoin avoided a sharp fall as it continued to fluctuate near $86,000.

On Sept. 22, blockchain media outlet Cointelegraph reported that Bitcoin rose to $87,350 the previous day, its highest since Jan. 29, before volatility eased somewhat.

Markets on the day digested a drop in international oil prices and U.S. remarks related to the Middle East. Bitcoin stayed above $86,000, while U.S. stocks moved sideways as they failed to find a clear direction ahead of a speech at the U.N. General Assembly in New York. U.S. President Donald Trump said he would pursue an agreement to end a war between the United States and Iran, but said the timing could be after the November midterm elections.

Oil markets also acted as a key variable. West Texas Intermediate fell to as low as $89.16 a barrel, its lowest since Sept. 4. Reports that Saudi Arabia restarted the East-West pipeline, a key supply route, were cited as a factor behind the decline. Multiple sources expected it would take 6 to 8 weeks for oil flows to reach normal levels.

On-chain indicators pointed to a shift in sentiment in the Bitcoin market. Glassnode said the market value to realized value ratio, or MVRV, crossed back above its 365-day moving average, calling it the same signal seen at the start of bull markets in 2019 and 2023.

MVRV compares the market value of Bitcoin supply with the accumulated price when it last moved on-chain. The current reading is 1.62, up from 1.19 on Aug. 16. It remains far from 3.7, which was viewed as the profit zone at past bull market peaks. That means investors' unrealised gains are rising, but it is too early to see the market as overheated.

CryptoQuant also analysed that MVRV's 30-day moving average is trying to break above a months-long resistance zone formed below 1.5. If it clears that level for the first time since January, it could mark the end of a prolonged accumulation phase, it said.

CryptoQuant said that if the current move above 1.62 continues, a reversal of the bear market would be confirmed. It also pointed to the possibility of a renewed push toward Bitcoin's record high, setting a target price of $126,200.

In this environment, a key near-term focus is whether the $86,000 level can establish itself as new support. With oil prices and geopolitical issues fuelling short-term volatility, on-chain indicators show Bitcoin may be leaving an accumulation phase and entering a trend reversal window.

$BTC has flashed the momentum signal that started the last two bull markets. MVRV has crossed back above its 365-day average. This is the same cross that we saw in 2019 and 2023 at the beginning of each bull market. pic.twitter.com/tzFMakLEo3