The United States' key crypto legislative proposal, the “Clarity” bill, is increasingly likely to fail to pass the Senate.

On Sept. 8, blockchain outlet U.Today reported that even Republican senators are voicing concerns it may not secure the support needed for progress on the bill next week. Semafor reported there has been little progress in talks over strengthened ethics provisions demanded by Democrats.

The Clarity bill contains measures to comprehensively establish a U.S. crypto regulatory framework, and the crypto industry in Washington has regarded it as its top legislative priority. But strengthening the ethics provisions sought by Democrats remains the central sticking point in negotiations. The latest Senate draft already includes ethics-related provisions, but it was reported they were not enough to resolve differences between the two sides.

Even within the Republican Party, the outlook is not bright. Republican Senator Mike Rounds (마이크 라운즈) of South Dakota said of the bill’s chances of passing: “It doesn’t look good.” Republican Senator Thom Tillis (톰 틸리스) of North Carolina said the bill would fail without a compromise. Democratic Senator Angela Alsobrooks (앤절라 알소브룩스) of Maryland also said she would not support the bill without stronger ethics provisions.

The Senate had planned to take up the Clarity bill after returning to Washington. Republican Senate Majority Leader John Thune (존 튠) has also signalled the bill would be brought forward. The Senate is currently scheduled to hold a procedural vote to begin deliberations on Sept. 15.

But as action on the bill is delayed, the time for both sides to craft a compromise is also shrinking. With midterm elections approaching, the likelihood is also rising that Congress will focus on the election. The chance of the Clarity bill being enacted into law this year is being put at about 15 percent.

A shorter House schedule is another variable. As House Republicans sharply cut the September legislative calendar, there is speculation the bill’s passage could be pushed to after the midterms. With Senate differences over the ethics provisions not narrowing, prospects for legislation this year have become even more uncertain.

Republican Senator Cynthia Lummis (신시아 루미스) of Wyoming, who is seen as crypto-friendly, argued that Democrats would be responsible if the bill fails. Lummis said, “If this bill fails, it won’t be because of ethics, but because Democrats did not join Republicans on a bipartisan bill that includes provisions enabling consumer protection, strengthening U.S. digital asset leadership, and cracking down on illicit finance.”

Lummis added that the possibility of a compromise remains. “I am confident we can pass the Clarity bill if we can bridge the gap,” she said, arguing more compromise from Democrats is needed. She also warned that if the bill fails this year, comprehensive crypto regulation may not be put in place until 2030. Lummis repeatedly warned that if the bill is not handled in the current session, the next meaningful legislative opportunity could be delayed until 2030.