Global bitcoin holders have been tallied at more than 500 million.

On Sept. 1 (local time), blockchain media outlet U.Today reported that cryptocurrency analyst Willy Woo (윌리 우) estimated bitcoin ownership had risen to 4.5 to 6 percent of the world’s population.

Citing Glassnode and Chainalysis indicators, Woo put the total holder base at 370 million to 500 million. He also assessed that bitcoin’s adoption speed is following an S-shaped innovation adoption curve similar to the early spread of the internet. This is read as a sign that bitcoin has moved beyond an early experimental phase and entered a shift toward a mass asset.

Distribution by country was uneven. India had the largest number of holders at 68 million, but that was 4.6 percent of its population. The United States followed with 50 million and recorded the highest penetration rate among major economies at 14 percent. China remained third with 33 million despite regulatory constraints.

Adoption rates relative to population were higher in Southeast Asia and emerging markets. Vietnam was tallied at 17 percent and the Philippines at 14 percent. Argentina at 15 percent and Turkey at 14 percent were also high. In these countries, retail investors are using digital assets as a way to avoid local inflation risks and bypass capital controls.

Views were split on whether a broader holder base will directly lead to a sharp price surge. The market continues to expect bitcoin could reach $250,000, but there is an argument that the diminishing returns hypothesis is currently more dominant. In past macro cycles, bitcoin rose 48-fold and 16-fold, but the upside ceiling for this cycle was put at about 1.8-fold. In that case, the possible peak is calculated to be limited to about $123,000.

Woo said people should not fixate on precise forecasts for the market top. He viewed the top as being formed when overheated sentiment among short-term retail investors combines, leaving weak fundamental support. By contrast, he said reliable investment signals come only at bottom zones where large investors confirm that assets are undervalued.

Differences in views over long-term valuation also persist. Bitcoin supporters point to gold’s market capitalisation of $32 trillion as a comparison, and argue that if gold shifts to a digital substitute, bitcoin’s long-term value could reach about $5 million per coin in today’s purchasing power terms.

Traditional finance and regulators are sceptical of such forecasts. The cryptocurrency market’s high volatility, the difficulty of estimating the number of unique users and pressure from central bank policies are still cited as constraints.

The current adoption rate of around 5 percent is being interpreted as a turning point as bitcoin enters a stage of institutional maturation. At the same time, another view is being offered that it is too early to say full-scale competition with the fiat currency system has begun. Since a competitive landscape would only fully take shape when global ownership reaches at least about 50 percent, topping 500 million holders is both a milestone in adoption and a sign that it remains at an early stage.

BTC ownership by country. 4.5 - 6% global adoption. pic.twitter.com/TpgCMMU2Kx