With long-term government bond yields surging in Japan and the United States, bitcoin moved around $77,000 without a clear direction.

Cointelegraph, a blockchain media outlet, reported on Sept. 1 that Japan's 10-year government bond yield hit 3 percent for the first time since 1996, and the 30-year yield climbed past 4.18 percent to a record high.

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield also rose to as high as 4.78 percent, reaching its highest level in years. Selling spread to long-term government bonds in major countries, sending global long-term yields to their highest levels since the financial crisis.

The moves drew more attention after the U.S. Treasury said it would raise the maximum size of bond buyback operations to $4 billion from September. While it is not monetary policy, some in the market interpret it as effectively similar to yield curve control. That has again raised concerns about currency debasement, and interest in assets such as bitcoin and gold has also been discussed.

Markets are focusing in particular on policy constraints in Japan and the United States. Japan faces a structure in which further rate hikes could burden the Ministry of Finance, and efforts to repatriate funds to defend the yen would require selling U.S. Treasuries. The view is that both countries have limited options because the United States depends on Japanese money.

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes (아서 헤이즈) has argued that the U.S. Federal Reserve could ultimately use the Foreign and International Monetary Authorities repo facility. The approach would be to borrow dollars using U.S. Treasuries held by Japan's Ministry of Finance as collateral, then convert the dollars into yen to defend the yen's value. Hayes has said this mechanism could supply new dollar liquidity and has recommended increasing allocations to bitcoin, gold and cryptocurrencies.

Some analysis also says the sharp rise in long-term yields could be a signal that this scenario is being priced in. Brookings Institution senior fellow Robin Brooks (로빈 브룩스) said on X, formerly Twitter, that Japan has experienced a "Liz Truss"-style bond market crisis over the past 2 years. He said an unusual situation has persisted in which government bond yields keep rising even as the currency weakens. He called it hard to find a precedent even among the Group of 10 countries.

Bitcoin has shown no clear direction despite the bond market shock. It neared $79,000 during the session, then eased slightly and moved sideways around $77,000. A thick resistance zone between the spot price and $86,000 is limiting a move higher.

Traditional markets were also weak. S&P 500 futures fell 0.3 percent and the index slid to around 7,660, its lowest level since Aug. 4. Uncertainty in the Middle East also weighed on risk appetite. Oil rose more than 2 percent on renewed clashes between the United States and Iran, an incident involving an oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz and remarks by U.S. President Donald Trump, with WTI around $88 a barrel and Brent above $92.

In these conditions, bitcoin is struggling to find a clear direction in a market environment shaped by surging long-term yields, expectations for dollar liquidity and geopolitical tensions at the same time. For now, the path of long-term bond yields, steps related to dollar liquidity and shifts in supply and demand between $76,000 and $82,000 are expected to be key points to watch.

Japan's 30-year yield just hit 4.18%, an all-time high. The country that invented modern yield curve control and zero interest rate policy is watching its long bond blow out in real time. pic.twitter.com/ekAuFe7e3f