XRP is showing strength ahead of September, which is typically seen as a bearish stretch for the cryptocurrency market.

U.Today, a blockchain outlet, reported on Aug. 31 (local time) that XRP has finished September higher 5 times and lower 3 times since 2018. Its average return was 12.19 percent. That contrasts with bitcoin, which typically enters a corrective phase ahead of September.

Crypto analyst Zaif Crypto said XRP is showing an unusual pattern that can ignore seasonal weakness. The market is watching and waiting as it guards against September weakness, but XRP’s past data shows a different picture.

Chart action was also presented as a signal in XRP’s favor. In late August, XRP, Stellar Lumens (XLM) and bitcoin simultaneously formed the same type of move on weekly charts. All 3 assets rebounded from local lows and are trying to regain key price levels. Zaif Crypto interpreted the moves as a “synchronized pattern” that can appear when major capital is preparing for a strong upswing.

Factors outside the charts were also cited as supporting a bullish view in late August. Spot XRP exchange-traded funds saw net weekly inflows of $110.49 million, a record high. Goldman Sachs confirmed through a 13F filing that it holds more than $86 million in spot XRP ETF positions. Continued institutional inflows could support XRP in terms of short-term supply and demand.

The regulatory calendar is also drawing market attention. The U.S. Senate is set to vote on the Clarity Act on Sept. 15. If the bill passes, it could confirm XRP’s status as a digital commodity and remove regulatory risks, according to an observation cited in the report.

A scheduled release of 1 billion XRP from escrow on Sept. 1 is often cited as a supply overhang, but expectations have emerged that the market impact could be limited this time. Past cases show 600 million to 800 million XRP were immediately locked up again under new escrow contracts. That means the scheduled release may not directly translate into order-book pressure.

Ultimately, the market is focused on whether XRP can again carve a path that differs from the conventional view of September weakness. As chart synchronization, ETF inflows, the Senate vote schedule and the practice of re-locking escrow interact, the possibility of a repeat of the historical pattern of an average 12.19 percent September gain is being highlighted. Actual market reactions tied to technical patterns, flows and the regulatory schedule are expected to be seen in early September price action.

September has historically been decent for XRP average return of +12.19%, with 5 green Septembers vs 3 red since 2018. The odds have leaned bullish for XRP heading into September. https://t.co/KleXy0FNo5 pic.twitter.com/33GdYlKgnz