XRP may be able to move into its next upswing only after further declines and a retest near the 300-week moving average (300WMA), a forecast said.

On Aug. 31 local time, blockchain outlet The Crypto Basic reported that market analyst Egrag said XRP could fall to $1.00 to $1.10 if the current correction continues.

XRP rose to $1.69, a three-month high, two weeks ago but turned lower after meeting resistance at that level. The correction has extended into its ninth day and is trading around $1.38. Even so, it is up about 29 percent for August as a whole.

The key is the 300-week moving average. Egrag did not see an immediate drop to $1.00 to $1.10 as a bearish signal. The 300-week moving average is currently near $1.03 and continues to rise, he explained, meaning a pullback into that area could be a process of rechecking an important long-term indicator.

He based the view on XRP’s past moves. In a previous cycle, XRP broke above the 300-week moving average and settled there, then volatility increased on issues or major news that heightened market fear, and the price retested the level, he said. After holding support, it rebuilt momentum and moved into a larger upswing.

A similar pattern appeared in the 2020 to 2021 cycle. After regaining the 300-week moving average in July 2020, XRP rose to around $0.79 by about November. In December 2020, it plunged to about $0.17 and retested the 300-week moving average. At the time, negative reports related to a U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) lawsuit against Ripple increased selling pressure.

Even so, XRP maintained its structure near the 300-week moving average despite delistings by U.S. exchanges, and later used the indicator as support. A recovery began in January 2021, and it climbed to $1.96 in April 2021.

Egrag said a similar confirmation process is needed this time. He said XRP could return to the $1.00 to $1.10 range, leave a short-term tail and trade near that area, then move back above the 300-week moving average as the needed confirmation signal. After that, it would first need to regain $1.65, and he cited $2.00 to $2.80 as the next major resistance range.

He also mentioned long-term target ranges. Egrag’s roadmap presented $15, $27 and $50. He said the scenario assumes breaks of intermediate resistance and maintenance of the long-term structure.

External factors that could increase volatility remain. Egrag mentioned that negative issues surrounding the Clarity Act or another major headline could be a trigger that sends XRP back to the $1.00 to $1.10 range. He added that charts alone cannot predict what news will emerge.

Ultimately, the key variables in the short term remain whether the correction will extend further and whether the 300-week moving average around $1.03 will act as support. If XRP holds that area, the long-term rising structure may not be damaged, but the subsequent path could change depending on whether it breaks below it.

#XRP - The CHASM & 300W MA ♾: If you ask me where #XRP is compared with previous cycles, I believe we are very close to the 300-week MA retest phase. Historically, the sequence looked like this: Penetrate/Reclaim 300W MA → Retest → Fear/News Catalyst → Hold Structure… pic.twitter.com/JIAEPnFZ00