[DigitalToday reporter Yoonseo Lee] As expectations for a U.S. Federal Reserve rate increase in September overtook forecasts for a hold, bitcoin held the $78,000 level.

On Aug. 31 (local time), the blockchain outlet The Defiant reported that on prediction market Polymarket, the probability of a 0.25 percentage point rate hike at the Sept. 15-16 Federal Open Market Committee meeting stood at 55.5 percent, above the 43.5 percent chance of a hold.

The repricing gathered pace after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh took a cautious stance on slowing inflation at the Jackson Hole symposium on Aug. 29. Warsh said it was difficult to view this summer's price indicators as having improved in a meaningful way. He also did not separately address the direction of monetary policy, saying, "We are committed to discipline."

The bond market also reacted immediately. The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note rose to 4.73 percent on Aug. 29 from 4.67 percent the previous day, while the 30-year yield climbed to 5.22 percent from 5.19 percent. Over the same period, Brent crude rose above $90 a barrel and U.S. stocks started lower. Gold prices also fell for a second straight day.

Bitcoin, however, showed a relatively firm trend even as rate expectations shifted and as fallout from a weekend military clash between the United States and Iran weighed on markets. Bitcoin is holding the $78,000 range, and ether is also above the $2,470 level. XRP fell 6.60 percent over the past 7 days to $1.38. Solana slipped slightly over the past 24 hours to $103, but kept a weekly gain of 5.95 percent. BNB fell 1.57 percent to $691.03.

Views also diverged within the market. Nigel Green (나이절 그린), chief executive of the deVere Group, argued the market was overreacting to Warsh's remarks. "A warning is not a decision," he said, adding that investors were pricing in a rate hike too quickly. Referring to recent employment data, he said, "You do not add tightening to a labor market that has just turned negative."

Indicators Warsh is watching are sending mixed signals. The July consumer price index released on Aug. 12 showed headline inflation of 3.4 percent on a 12-month basis and core inflation of 2.5 percent. The July jobs report released on Aug. 7 showed nonfarm employment fell by 23,000 and the unemployment rate was 4.1 percent.

The next key variable is the August CPI to be released on Sept. 11. As it will be published four days before the meeting begins, it may directly affect the September decision.

Bitcoin has maintained a strong monthly uptrend. Compared with the Aug. opening price of $62,892, it was up 24.5 percent as of Aug. 31. The last time the monthly gain from open to close was larger was in November 2024, when it rose 37.1 percent. It is still down 37.9 percent from the all-time high of $126,080 recorded in October 2025.

Fund flows were mixed. Spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds saw net outflows of $201.9 million on Aug. 29, ending five consecutive trading days of inflows. On a weekly basis, they still posted net inflows of $924.5 million. Spot ether ETFs recorded net inflows of $102.1 million on Aug. 29, bringing cumulative weekly inflows to $815.7 million.

The decentralised finance market also contracted slightly. DeFi total value locked stood at $87.27 billion, down 0.83 percent over 24 hours, according to DefiLlama. Stablecoin supply, however, rose to $311.2 billion, up 0.33 percent over the past 7 days and 1.30 percent over the past 30 days.

Among individual tokens, Cronos (CRO) weakness stood out. Cronos fell 7.9 percent after the network discarded about 11,000 blocks and restarted. Cronos said, "The network has resumed normal operations as it is producing blocks again," and explained it reverted the chain to its state before the morning of the day the attack occurred. Solana Mobile's token Seeker, meanwhile, posted the biggest gain among the top 150 non-stablecoins.

The market is now looking to the September CPI and the Fed meeting as the next inflection points. Even as expectations for a rate hike have become the dominant view, the fact that bitcoin is holding the $78,000 level has increased the likelihood that the next direction will be shaped by both macro indicators and fund flows.