An analysis says bitcoin has recently been moving more closely with gold than with tech stocks.

On Aug. 28, blockchain media outlet Coinpost reported that asset manager Grayscale assessed that signs are emerging that bitcoin’s safe-haven character is resurfacing.

Grayscale said bitcoin has, for about the past year, shown the character of a “high-beta risk asset” that moved together with artificial intelligence-related stocks. It said that setup is now changing. Bitcoin’s 90-day correlation coefficient with the Nasdaq 100 index fell to about 33 percent from above 60 percent. By contrast, its correlation with gold rose to above 50 percent from near zero at the start of the year.

It pointed to worsening U.S. fiscal conditions and rising long-term interest rates as background factors. U.S. federal debt has surpassed $40 trillion, and long-term Treasury yields have risen sharply over the past year. That is reviving interest among investors in a “debasement trade” that shifts money into scarce assets such as gold and cryptocurrencies to hedge against a decline in the real value of currency.

Bitcoin emerged after the global financial crisis and has no central issuer. Its issuance cap is fixed at 21 million BTC, and its supply schedule is disclosed. Grayscale said that as concerns about fiscal deterioration grow, bitcoin could become an asset allocation target as a scarce alternative asset alongside gold.

Recent steps by the U.S. Treasury have also added weight to the discussion. The U.S. Treasury announced on Aug. 19 it would expand the size of its long-term Treasury purchases per operation to $4 billion from $2 billion. On the same day, U.S. public debt exceeded $40 trillion for the first time.

In a separate report on Aug. 26, Grayscale said expanding Treasury purchases is only a response to the symptom of rising long-term interest rates and is not a way to resolve structural fiscal deficits. It also forecast that if the market starts to re-evaluate the diversification benefits of scarce digital assets, including bitcoin, and their resistance to a decline in the real value of fiat currencies, a more favorable environment could be created for such assets.

A similar view appeared in forecasts by other financial institutions. Investment bank Bernstein maintained its bullish view that bitcoin could rewrite a peak of $150,000 by mid-2027 and reach around $300,000 in 2029, reflecting the end of a 40-year trend of falling interest rates and U.S. government debt reaching $40 trillion. It added that authorities are likely to accept some depreciation in currency value as they respond to fiscal deterioration.

In this trend, the market’s key question is whether bitcoin can actually move further away from co-moving with tech stocks and establish itself as an asset similar to gold. If U.S. fiscal instability and rising long-term rates continue, bitcoin could more clearly be re-evaluated as a scarce asset rather than a risk asset.