Bitcoin is failing to settle at the $80,000 level and is showing a pattern that is sensitive to selling pressure.

On Aug. 26 (local time), blockchain outlet Cointelegraph cited analysis saying Bitcoin has maintained a recent rebound, but the market is not fully absorbing profit-taking by investors who have moved into gains.

The key is the balance between selling by holders sitting on profits and new demand to absorb it. According to CryptoQuant data, long-held Bitcoin has started moving again on-chain. In particular, as of Aug. 22, SOPR, an indicator of realised profit and loss on coins, rose to 1.48, suggesting an increase in coins moved at a profit.

The intensity of profit-taking by long-term holders also at one point exceeded that of short-term holders. When Bitcoin was moving sideways around $79,500, the ratio comparing SOPR for short-term and long-term holders was 1.4. That was the highest level since July 25. CryptoQuant said it meant long-term holders realised profits at relatively higher levels than short-term holders.

However, the ratio later fell to 0.93. It is hard to conclude that large-scale profit-taking by long-term holders is continuing to expand, but the possibility of selling across profit-holding investors remains.

The fact that most holder cohorts have entered profit territory is also adding to the market’s burden. CryptoQuant analysed that all holder cohorts are broadly in profit and that steady buying is needed to support further gains. It said the key is not whether Bitcoin can temporarily break above $80,000, but whether new demand can absorb selling by holders in profit.

Inflows into spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds were cited as a candidate to draw in new buying. However, the buying by U.S. investors has yet to clearly recover based on the “Coinbase premium,” an indicator that gauges U.S. demand strength by reflecting the Bitcoin price gap between Coinbase and Binance.

When Bitcoin’s price moved above $78,500, the Coinbase premium briefly rose above the zero line on an hourly basis, but overall it remained in negative territory. The indicator has largely stayed negative in 2026 and stood at -0.015 as of Aug. 26. That is an improvement from -0.094 in early August, but not enough to say U.S. demand has clearly recovered.

CryptoQuant viewed whether the Coinbase premium can cross the zero line and then stay positive as the next key signal. It analysed that if the indicator turns positive while Bitcoin extends its recovery, the market could move beyond a phase of easing selling pressure and enter a stage where spot demand meaningfully comes back.

Ultimately, Bitcoin’s short-term direction is increasingly likely to be driven more by supply and demand than by the price itself. With profit-position supply, including from long-term holders, coming to market, how much U.S. spot demand and ETF flows absorb it is emerging as a factor that will determine whether Bitcoin can hold $80,000.