A forecast that bitcoin could rise to $300,000 by 2029 has emerged, but quantum-computing preparedness has surfaced as a precondition for it to happen.

On Aug. 26, blockchain media outlet U.Today reported that investment bank Bernstein projected bitcoin could reach $150,000 in mid-2027 and $300,000 in 2029, citing a sovereign debt crisis and institutional demand.

But Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards (찰스 에드워즈) drew a line, saying the scenario is possible only if Bitcoin Core developers introduce quantum-resistant cryptography in time. He said on social media, "This will happen if Bitcoin Core comes to its senses and fixes the quantum problem."

Edwards said quantum risk is already reflected in current market prices. By his estimate, such concerns are artificially holding bitcoin down by about 30 percent, creating a "hidden risk discount". It was also noted that Bernstein's upside scenario, in which large institutional funds flow in, is bound to be sensitive to protocol security.

In the market, concerns persist that some existing bitcoin is exposed to quantum algorithms. Analysts have previously warned that 20 to 30 percent of bitcoin in circulation could be within the direct impact range of Shor's algorithm. That includes early wallets whose public keys are exposed on the blockchain and holdings attributed to Satoshi Nakamoto.

Against that backdrop, major blockchain projects are also moving to overhaul defensive systems. The Ethereum Foundation this month revised its layer 1 protection plan and adopted SHA-256 and Blake instead of Poseidon2, which had been cited as vulnerable. The target timing is a 2029 upgrade.

In the bitcoin camp, related discussions are also under way. Bitcoin Core developers are reviewing BIP-360, which proposed post-quantum addresses based on ML-DSA, and BIP-361, which would forcibly freeze vulnerable legacy coins five years after an upgrade. Galaxy Digital allocated $5 million through a "Bitcoin Quantum Readiness" initiative to bring work forward.

On the price side, long-term optimism and near-term resistance were presented together. Based on Glassnode on-chain data, the MVRV price band judged that bitcoin's mathematical peak in this cycle is forming between $134,000 and $180,000. But to get to that range, it must first break through resistance at $70,920, where key cost bases for existing positions are concentrated. That price level was mentioned as an area where selling pressure often strengthens.

Ultimately, Bernstein's macro optimism is intertwined in the short term with on-chain resistance around $71,000. Over the longer term, whether bitcoin can embark on a large-scale overhaul of its cryptographic system remains the key variable for the $300,000 scenario.