A forecast has emerged that bitcoin’s bear market is over after bitcoin (BTC) broke out higher against both gold and the dollar. Matt Cole (매트 콜), CEO of bitcoin-holding company Strive, said his conviction in a bitcoin trend shift is growing based on recent price moves.

On Aug. 24 local time, blockchain media outlet CoinPost reported that Cole said on X that bitcoin’s breakouts against both gold and the dollar were a key signal that the bear market had ended.

Cole focused not on bitcoin’s dollar price itself but on bitcoin’s relative move against gold. He said past patterns show bitcoin formed highs and lows first when measured against gold, ahead of dollar-based prices.

Bitcoin first formed a high in December 2024 when measured against gold, and the dollar-based high appeared about 10 months later in October 2025, Cole said.

In the latest downtrend, the pattern moved in the opposite direction. Bitcoin’s gold-based price bottomed first in February 2026, and the dollar-based price formed a low 5 months later in July.

Based on that time gap, Cole argued that bitcoin’s price action against gold has served as a leading indicator that shows trend shifts earlier than the dollar-based price. He interpreted bitcoin’s simultaneous breakouts against gold and the dollar over the past week as a signal supporting the end of the bear market.

He also said the macroeconomic environment could support bitcoin strength. Cole mentioned the possibility that the dollar index DXY could enter a long-term cyclical downtrend, and argued it would be the first time bitcoin experiences such an environment.

He also pointed to the spread of artificial intelligence as a new variable. If intelligence becomes replicable like a commodity through AI, funds could move into scarce assets that are difficult to replicate. Cole sees bitcoin as one of those scarce assets.

Strive’s bitcoin holding strategy also aligns with that outlook. The company is increasing its bitcoin holdings while maintaining a capital structure that does not rely on borrowing or margin.

Strive currently holds 20,246 BTC, and is known to rank seventh globally among companies by bitcoin holdings. Market interest is growing because the analysis comes from the CEO of a company that actually holds bitcoin in large size, rather than being a simple market forecast.

Cole said Strive’s capital structure is designed to help attract additional inflows of funds in a situation where bitcoin strengthens its advantage against gold again.

Ultimately, the key going forward is whether bitcoin can sustain strength against gold. If its relative strength versus gold holds and the dollar-based price also locks in an uptrend, it is expected to be possible to confirm whether Cole’s “bear market over” scenario leads to an actual trend shift.