[Digital Today reporter Jinju Hong (홍진주)] An analysis says the Bitcoin market has entered a standstill similar to the summer of 2023 as trading volume and volatility shrink together.

CoinPost, a blockchain outlet, reported on Aug. 18 that U.S. crypto asset manager Grayscale said in a report dated Aug. 17 that the Bitcoin market has become notably calmer this summer after big swings earlier this year.

Grayscale said spot Bitcoin trading volume and realised volatility have fallen to cycle-low levels, and the market has become less responsive to news. The options market is showing the same trend. One-month implied volatility has fallen to 32 percent, below the 42 percent average since the start of the year. It suggests the market may have digested a significant portion of catalysts.

Grayscale said the quiet trend may not last long. The company pointed to the summer of 2023 as the last time volume and volatility shrank as much as they have recently. It said Bitcoin traded in a narrow range throughout that summer in the later stages of a bear market, while investors waited for a trigger to move the market.

The trend later changed. As selling pressure from the previous cycle eased, Bitcoin broke out of its range and rose about 50 percent from October through year-end. Grayscale said the catalysts may differ this time, but the setup is similar in that trading has contracted, volatility has been compressed, and markets are waiting for clarity on macro policy and the direction of regulation.

It also said the current standstill does not immediately signal a bull market. Grayscale said, "You cannot call it bullish based on stagnation alone," while raising the possibility that an important shift may be underway beneath the surface, as in the summer of 2023. It also said the current trend could reflect an exhaustion of selling pressure and presented a view that, compared with historical benchmarks, Bitcoin is in oversold territory.

Market data pointed in a similar direction. Bitfinex said Bitcoin volatility, trading activity and market liquidity have fallen to levels comparable to the end stages of past bear markets. Bitcoin is moving within a narrow price range, and spot trading volume has fallen to the lowest level in recent years. The frequency of on-chain transfers has also dropped to a seven-year low.

In price terms, the median realised price around $63,200 is holding. By contrast, $67,176, cited as the short-term holders' breakeven point, was flagged as a key reference level. It means changes in short-term supply and demand around that level could influence market direction.

Fund flows also signalled weakness. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw weekly outflows of about $385 million. Corporate Bitcoin holdings also turned negative. The simultaneous outflows from spot ETFs and declines in corporate holdings show the recent market standstill is not just a simple drop in trading activity.

In this situation, the Bitcoin market appears to have entered a phase of waiting for new catalysts to revive trading and widen volatility. As Grayscale noted, the current market shows a pattern similar to the summer of 2023, but whether a real shift occurs depends on how clearly selling pressure eases, fund flows improve, and the policy and regulatory environment changes.