A warning has emerged that bitcoin could fall to around $10,000 in the medium term. U.Today, a blockchain outlet, reported on Aug. 16 that Bloomberg Intelligence senior commodity strategist Mike McGlone (마이크 맥글론) revised his bitcoin price outlook and raised the possibility of a steep correction.

McGlone pointed to bitcoin lagging behind as U.S. stocks set fresh record highs as a key signal. He said bitcoin has failed to settle above the psychological resistance level of $69,000 even as the Nasdaq and S&P 500 rise, which he sees as a sign a speculative bubble is deflating.

He compared bitcoin's multiyear upswing to a "Faustian bargain". He judged that the industry drew institutional money along with success, but in return became a structure fully dependent on external catalysts.

McGlone said every major bull market was driven by temporary, artificial support. In 2021, large-scale low-rate liquidity was released into the global economy and the price neared a peak, and in early 2024 the launch of U.S. spot ETFs became a catalyst. He explained that in late 2024, a shift in the regulatory stance and political expectations favorable to the industry overlapped, pushing the price temporarily above $100,000.

But bitcoin is now trading around $63,000. ETF inflows have dried up and expectations for regulation have cooled, he said, putting the market into a phase of confronting the cyclical flow of the macroeconomy.

McGlone also cited high linkage with technology stocks as a downside factor. He said bitcoin's moves have shown strong similarity to the ratio between U.S. technology stocks, especially the Nasdaq 100 index, and the S&P 500, and that this indicator has recently begun to turn lower.

Citing the tendency of financial cycles to ultimately revert to the mean, he said bitcoin faces a risk of returning to a historical base around $10,000, the average price band in 2019 to 2020. He added that oversupply in a market with millions of alternative tokens is also weighing on bitcoin.