An analysis says bitcoin may already have formed a macro low for the current four-year cycle at $57,735, hit on July 1 (local time).

According to blockchain media outlet U.Today on Aug. 11, bitcoin showed a rebound after testing a long-term key support line on a quarterly Bollinger Bands chart.

The analysis focused on a quarterly chart based on three-month periods rather than short-term price moves. Bitcoin fell to $57,735 shortly after the third-quarter candle began on July 1, the first day of the third quarter. It was close to the three-month Bollinger Bands midline of $57,431, which the analysis said suggested strong buying emerged in that zone. Bitcoin then climbed as high as $64,174 on Aug. 11, rebounding about 11 percent from the low.

The market has recently focused on rangebound trading between $60,000 and $66,000, but a different signal is appearing on the long-term quarterly chart. The support test was analysed as similar to the way quarterly moving averages were tested near the end of the 2015, 2019 and 2022 cycles. The explanation said a similar pattern also appeared near the end of a market correction at those times.

Even so, it is difficult to immediately conclude the current zone is a signal of a shift to an uptrend. The third-quarter candle will not be complete until Sept. 30. Even if the current rebound point looks like a bottom, the possibility remains that prices could swing sharply again before the quarterly candle closes.

The analysis also raised the possibility that volatility could widen again in August and September. It said large funds could push prices down again during a seasonally lower-liquidity period, temporarily taking bitcoin below the July low of $57,735. If fear-driven stop-loss selling emerges in the process, it said a rebound could follow after that supply is absorbed. It also cited the possibility that an "elevator market" of large up-and-down swings could continue, with bitcoin failing to find a clear direction before the start of the fourth quarter.

The key benchmark for judging the long-term trend is ultimately the third-quarter closing price. The analysis said that if the quarterly candle closes above $57,431 on Sept. 30, it could technically lay the groundwork for an autumn uptrend. It added that even if a temporary drop occurs during the quarter, whether the final close holds that support line is more important.

Therefore, rather than short-term spikes and drops, a key point to watch is whether bitcoin can defend the $57,400 level at the end of the third quarter, which is expected to determine the future medium- to long-term direction.