[DigitalToday reporter Yoonseo Lee (이윤서)] XRP ended both the first and second quarters of 2026 lower, and in years when the same conditions appeared in the past, a third-quarter rebound followed.

The Crypto Basic, a blockchain media outlet, reported on the 10th (local time) that XRP posted gains in the third quarter in 2014, 2018 and 2022 after consecutive declines in the first half.

XRP started this year on a weak footing. It began trading at $1.8404 at the start of 2026 and was already in a downtrend that had continued since the fourth quarter of 2025. The price at the time was nearly 50 percent below the all-time high (ATH) of $3.66 recorded in July 2025.

The first-quarter drop was also sizable. XRP fell 10.63 percent in January, 16.32 percent in February and 2.63 percent in March, for a total first-quarter decline of 27.1 percent. It was the first first-quarter drop since the 2022 bear market and the biggest first-quarter fall since the first quarter of 2018. In the first quarter of 2018, it plunged 77.7 percent after a January peak of $3.31.

There were signs of a rebound early in the second quarter. XRP rose 2.04 percent in April, raising expectations that the downtrend that had run since the fourth quarter of 2025 had ended. But the advance did not last long. It fell 2.65 percent in May, giving back April’s gain, and plunged 22 percent in June. The June decline was the biggest monthly drop since February 2025, and total losses for the second quarter widened to 22.4 percent.

The rebound is still not clear in the third quarter. XRP rose 2.16 percent in July but gave up those gains in August, and its August return currently stands at minus 2.24 percent. The third-quarter cumulative return for 2026 is currently minus 0.10 percent. But there is still time until the August close, and about two months remain in the third quarter, leaving room for a turnaround.

In past cases, the recent pattern was seen in the 2022 bear market. As shock from the Terra ecosystem spread across the broader market, XRP fell 2.14 percent in the first quarter of 2022 and 59.4 percent in the second quarter. But it rebounded 44.5 percent in the third quarter. In 2018, it rose 24.4 percent in the third quarter after falling 77.7 percent in the first quarter and 9.10 percent in the second quarter. In 2014, it gained 22.9 percent in the third quarter after dropping 67.9 percent in the first quarter and 57 percent in the second quarter.

Based on those cases, XRP rose an average of 30.6 percent in the third quarter after ending both the first and second quarters lower. If the same increase is repeated in the third quarter of 2026, calculations show the end-of-quarter price could exceed $1.356.

Even so, past moves cannot be taken as certain to repeat this year. XRP was assessed as having enough time in the third quarter to recover current losses and show a rebound similar to the past, but the rebound could be limited or the quarter could end lower. If weakness extends through the third quarter, XRP would record three consecutive quarterly declines for the first time since its launch.

Ultimately, the direction depends on the broader cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin in particular is cited as a variable that has a big influence on the direction of XRP and other altcoins. In this situation, whether XRP’s third-quarter rebound pattern appears again or becomes an exception for the first time this year is a key focus for the remainder of the quarter.