Bitcoin short-term holders' (STH) realised market capitalisation has fallen about 62 percent from its peak in October 2025.

On July 30 local time, blockchain outlet CoinPost reported that on-chain analyst Darkfost assessed the drop as nearing the 70 to 75 percent declines seen in past bear markets.

The indicator is interpreted as a sign that short-term holders' average purchase prices are falling and that a significant portion of holdings built at the peak has been cleared from the market. Realised market capitalisation is calculated based on the price at which a coin last moved. It reflects the price levels at which current holdings were actually formed.

Darkfost, citing data from CryptoQuant and analyst Axel Adler Jr, pointed out that loss realisation by short-term holders has accumulated and that its scale has already reached a level that is hard to ignore. He also focused on the point that the recent decline is tied to changes in the holding structure rather than a simple price fall.

Two main factors were presented as driving the drop in realised market capitalisation. One is extreme fear selling in which UTXOs (unspent transaction outputs) acquired at the peak disappear through panic selling. The other is a trend in which new UTXOs form as buying occurs at lower price levels while the downtrend continues. The explanation is that when coins bought at high prices are cleared from the market and replaced by coins bought at lower prices, the STH realised market capitalisation structurally shrinks, and this process mechanically pushes the indicator lower.

The market views the figure as a clue to the stamina of short-term buying and the depth of the correction phase. In past bear markets, short-term holders' realised market capitalisation fell by as much as 70 to 75 percent. The current 62 percent decline has not fully reached that range, but suggests the distance to historic bearish territory is narrowing.

A cautious stance was maintained on the outlook. Darkfost said it needs to be determined whether the current correction phase will continue or whether another final downswing will occur. Short-term holders' losses have already accumulated to a significant level, but that alone makes it hard to conclude the correction is over.

In this situation, market participants are focusing on how the cost basis structure is being reshaped rather than on the price itself. How much more peak-bought supply will be cleared and whether supply rebuilt through low-price buying becomes the market's new baseline are expected to be key indicators that will determine the next move.