Bitcoin climbed above $64,400 immediately after the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) held its policy rate steady, but moved back below $64,000 after hawkish remarks by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh.
On July 29 (local time), blockchain outlet The Defiant reported that bitcoin was slightly below $64,000, with a 24-hour gain of just 0.13%.
The Fed kept the policy rate at 3.50 percent to 3.75 percent, but the market reacted more sensitively to Warsh's comments at a news conference than to the hold itself. Warsh has previously said in Congress earlier this month that he would not tolerate high inflation. As a result, market participants had fewer clues than before to gauge the rate path ahead of the Sept. 15-16 meeting.
In this decision, three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members unusually dissented, arguing for a 25-basis-point hike. They were Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan. Ahead of the meeting, the odds of a rate hike were about 35 percent, based on CME FedWatch.
The second rate statement under Warsh also maintained a warning signal on prices. In its statement, the Fed said inflation remained high compared with its 2 percent goal, and cited supply shocks as a backdrop for price increases in some sectors, including energy. On economic activity, it said the expansion was continuing despite high uncertainty stemming from the Middle East conflict.
The macro environment was also not favorable for risk assets. Oil prices rose after U.S. President Donald Trump said he would respond forcefully to attacks on U.S. personnel in the Middle East, and the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.62 percent, near a year-to-date high. The Dow shed nearly 400 points early in the session before trimming losses after the rate hold, and the Nasdaq also turned down 0.4 percent during Warsh's remarks.
Major cryptocurrencies were mostly in a limited range. Ether traded near $1,900, and XRP around $1.06. Total crypto market capitalisation was about $2.29 trillion, up 2.2 percent over 24 hours. The crypto fear and greed index stayed in the fear zone at 35. Gold rose 1.2 percent the same day.
The Fed has now held rates for six consecutive meetings. During that period, bitcoin has fallen sharply from above $83,000 in late January. At the time, risk-off sentiment spread across markets, and at a meeting that delivered a hold in an unusual 8-4 vote under former Chair Jerome Powell, it also fell below $76,000.
A token-specific market also persisted. Among the top 300 tokens by market capitalisation, KAITO posted the biggest gain, rising 21 percent to $1.34. BEAT rose 21 percent to $3.84, while HOLO gained 17 percent and VELVET rose 13 percent.
Among large-cap names, Monero rose 4.4 percent to $354.34 on trading volume of more than $106 million, and Cardano gained 6.1 percent to $0.168. Jupiter also rose 5.6 percent. Zcash drew attention after about $80 million worth of ZEC moved to a new shield pool on the first day after the Ironwood upgrade.
Losses were also clear. DEXE fell 9.5 percent to $2.78 on about $80 million in trading volume, the biggest drop among the top 300 tokens. KITE fell 7.3 percent, EigenCloud, renamed from EigenLayer, slipped 6.8 percent, and BTW dropped 6.2 percent. LayerZero and Ethena fell 4.3 percent and 4.1 percent, respectively.
Further down the list, weakness continued in Lorenzo Protocol's BANK token. BANK fell 48 percent to $0.18, with trading volume above $215 million. BANK once surged about 500 percent in about a week to hit an all-time high of $0.27, but it has recently given back most of those gains in a correction.
The market is reacting more sensitively to Warsh's stance on inflation and changes in future communication than to the Fed's hold itself. As a result, inflation, rate expectations and Middle East risks are likely to continue affecting digital asset moves, including bitcoin, until the September meeting.