Robinhood’s prediction market shows the probability of bitcoin (BTC) reaching $150,000 before June 2026 at 14%. Despite a recent rebound, optimism is cooling quickly as bitcoin fails to break through key resistance levels.

On Jan. 8, blockchain outlet The Crypto Basic reported that bitcoin surged about 7% after rising for five straight sessions in early January, but failed to regain the psychological resistance level of $100,000. On Jan. 5, bitcoin hit $94,792, its highest in two months, but ran into strong selling pressure and moved back into a correction. It later fell below support near $99,000, weakening upward momentum.

Against this backdrop, Robinhood’s prediction market assessed the chance of bitcoin hitting an all-time high of $150,000 before June 2026 at 14%. Robinhood also shared the details on its official X account, formerly known as Twitter, to draw interest in the forecast.

The mood was different in the past. In early October last year, shortly after bitcoin hit an all-time high of $126,272, the probability of reaching $150,000 before June 2026 was above 60%. Optimism was strong at the time because the additional gain needed was less than 20%.

Confidence weakened quickly as the downtrend became clearer in the fourth quarter of 2025. The probability fell to 45% in early November, then dropped to the mid-20% range after bitcoin slid into the $90,000s in late November. In early 2026, it started in the low teens and has since moved within a 12% to 16% range, settling at about 14%.

Robinhood also assigned low probabilities to shorter-term scenarios. The odds of bitcoin reaching $150,000 before May 2026 were 9%, before April 4% and before February 2%.

Some market experts and institutions still leave room for bitcoin to rise over the medium to long term. Robert Kiyosaki, author of "Rich Dad Poor Dad", has previously forecast bitcoin could soon reach $150,000. Fundstrat's Tom Lee has also mentioned the possibility of bitcoin reaching $150,000 within 12 months, but took a cautious stance on timing.

Standard Chartered raised its bitcoin target for 2024 to $150,000. Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani also recently projected bitcoin could reach that level in 2026. Still, with bitcoin trading around $89,000, it would need an additional rise of close to 70% to hit the target.

Experts see the macro environment and whether investor sentiment recovers, rather than short-term price volatility, as the key variables that will determine bitcoin’s future direction.