[DigitalToday reporter Yoonseo Lee (이윤서)] Bitcoin has moved sideways in the $63,000 range over the past month, but asset manager VanEck interpreted it as an extension of a corrective phase rather than a signal that a bottom has been confirmed.

On July 22 (local time), Bitcoin Magazine, a blockchain outlet, reported that VanEck said in its latest report that short-term downside pressure on bitcoin remains high, citing defensive positioning in derivatives markets, worsening mining profitability and outflows from spot exchange-traded products (ETPs).

VanEck put bitcoin’s July 12 closing price at $63,742. It is similar to a month earlier, but 33 percent below a six-month high. It also remains below the 200-day moving average of about $74,000. Given that bitcoin fell 3.6 percent in May and 20.5 percent in June, it was assessed as closer to box-range stagnation than a clear rebound.

Trading activity also slowed. Over the past 30 days, bitcoin spot trading volume averaged about $5.1 billion a day, 29 percent below the post-2019 average. Realised volatility, on an annualised basis, was 30.4 percent, below both the past year’s average of 43 percent and the long-term average of 81 percent.

In derivatives markets, analysis said investor caution has strengthened but not to a degree that indicates a capitulation phase. One-month put-call implied volatility skew widened to plus 11.4 percentage points, reaching the 83rd percentile of the distribution since 2021. Total option premium fell 23 percent to $613.6 million, but the put-call premium ratio was 1.49, well above the long-term average of 0.71.

The 30-day average funding rate for perpetual futures was plus 4.5 percent, about half the long-term average of plus 8.4 percent. VanEck said skew would need to exceed 15 percentage points or the funding rate would need to turn negative to be seen as a clear bottom signal.

Weaker confidence in corporate bitcoin treasury strategies was also reflected in the market. Strategy spent $1.38 billion to redeem convertible bonds and sold bitcoin while leaving $900 million in reserves. It was the first sale since 2022. VanEck viewed Strategy’s selling as also affecting net outflows across the broader group of corporate holders.

On-chain indicators, however, showed a trend toward stronger long-term holding. The share of bitcoin that has not moved for at least 1 year was tallied at 60.8 percent of total supply. That rose from 59.1 percent six months earlier despite the price decline. Holdings kept for at least 6 months but less than 1 year also accounted for 17.7 percent of the total. VanEck analysed that, absent additional selling from that cohort, it is highly likely to be absorbed into the long-term holding bracket.

Profitability indicators were also weak. Net unrealised profit remained around the 17th percentile. The share of bitcoin supply in profit was 53 percent, below the four-year average of 76 percent.

Profitability for miners deteriorated further. The bitcoin network hashrate stayed near highs at about 930 exahash (EH/s), but as prices fell, the hash price dropped to about $30.6 per petahash (PH/s) per day. Average daily mining revenue also fell 39.5 percent from a year earlier to $28.5 million.

Miners’ shift toward artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure was also cited as a key variable. VanEck pointed to a 20-year, $19 billion lease signed by TeraWulf and a $6.6 billion contract by CleanSpark as major examples.

Mining-related shares, however, are down about 42 percent from 52-week highs. VanEck explained that rising interest rates, a halt to data centre construction in the New York area and doubts over the profitability of AI businesses affected share declines.

VanEck judged that, considering improvements in contract terms, new AI infrastructure contracts and increased spending by hyperscalers, the discount in current share prices reflects related risks excessively. It also presented the view that an AI business pivot alone would make it difficult to resolve the slump among less competitive miners.

The report shows bitcoin is likely to continue a corrective trend for the time being rather than post a clear rebound. Defensive positioning in derivatives markets and worsening mining profitability are weighing in the short term, but an increase in long-term holdings was assessed as a positive factor for medium- and long-term supply and demand.