Tesla posted record-high second-quarter vehicle deliveries, but the market is focused on whether higher sales led to improved profitability.

Electrek reported on July 21 that Tesla will announce its 2026 second-quarter results after the market close on July 22. The conference call will be held at 5:30 p.m. ET.

Tesla delivered 480,126 vehicles in the second quarter. That was up 25 percent from a year earlier and about 74,000 above market expectations. It marked the first year-on-year increase in deliveries in 2 years and the strongest second quarter on record. Production totaled 451,758 vehicles. Deliveries exceeded production by about 28,000, reducing inventory. That was the opposite of the first quarter, when Tesla produced about 50,000 additional vehicles that did not sell.

The energy storage business also grew. Tesla deployed 13.5 gigawatt-hours of storage in the second quarter. That was higher than 9.6 GWh in the second quarter of last year and 8.8 GWh in the first quarter of this year. It came in slightly below the market estimate of about 13.8 GWh. Even so, the energy business is seen as Tesla's most consistent growth pillar.

Market consensus estimates second-quarter revenue of $25.9 billion to $26.4 billion. That is 15 to 17 percent above $22.5 billion in the second quarter of last year and also higher than $22.38 billion in the first quarter of this year. Forecasts vary widely, ranging from $22.3 billion to more than $29.0 billion. Views differ on how aggressive Tesla was with discounts to achieve record sales.

The key variable is profit. The market expects second-quarter adjusted earnings per share of $0.52 to $0.53. That is higher than $0.40 in the second quarter of last year, but estimates vary widely by brokerage. Some see it as low as $0.27, and Deutsche Bank set it at $0.36. The upper-end forecast reaches $0.74. The market is split on whether higher sales translated into profit or were largely offset by price cuts and low-interest financing support.

The metric investors are watching most closely is automotive gross margin excluding regulatory credits. It was about 12.5 percent in the first quarter. If that level held despite large deliveries, confidence in a turnaround would rise. If it fell, it would suggest Tesla boosted volume through discounts and financing support amid worsening conditions including lower regulatory credits and the end of a tax credit.

The contribution from regulatory credits is also shrinking. Tesla recorded $439 million in regulatory credit sales in the second quarter of 2025, down more than 50 percent from a year earlier. The downtrend has continued since then. The end of the U.S. federal EV tax credit on Sept. 30, 2025 is also cited as a factor weighing on profitability. Options markets reflect the possibility that the stock could move about 7.6 percent in either direction after the results.

The earnings Q&A will be conducted through Say Technologies. Shareholders can submit and endorse questions weighted by the number of shares they hold. By the submission deadline, about 1,710 people representing 8.62 million shares posted 425 questions. The top questions by shares held asked what constraints are limiting expansion of Optimus third-generation production and robotaxi operations, each representing about 5.3 million to 5.4 million shares. Some interpretations suggest a specific large shareholder is pushing friendly questions to the top.

By simple endorsements, a different question drew the most attention. A question that received 732 votes asked, "Why has Tesla failed to meet its short-term robotaxi guidance for three consecutive quarters?" That question currently represents about 1.5 million shares.

Changes are also being detected in the sales competition. Tesla's 25 percent increase in deliveries narrowed the gap somewhat with China's BYD. Over the same period, BYD's battery electric vehicle sales fell about 8 percent. Tesla remained in second place, but the two companies moved in opposite directions.

Experts assess that deliveries themselves are no longer a concern in this earnings report. A 25 percent increase and record-high second-quarter deliveries are clear achievements. But deliveries and profitability are separate issues. Selling more than it produced while reducing inventory is positive, but this quarter's assessment hinges on whether automotive gross margin excluding regulatory credits held, analysts say. If margins held, the rebound is substantial. If they fell, the result could be read as higher volume achieved at the expense of profitability.

Still, because a significant portion of Tesla's stock is linked to projects that remain delayed, including robotaxis and Optimus, the impact of these results on the share price may be limited.

When EV sales were weak, there were assessments that "Tesla is no longer a car company," but some also point to the irony that the strongest results in 2 years were driven by rising EV sales.

Ultimately, the key to this earnings release is not the sales record but how much profit record sales generated. Whether inventory reductions and higher deliveries are a true sign of a rebound or the result of sacrificing margins is expected to be determined by the automotive profitability indicators to be disclosed on July 22.